Paraty vs Rio de Janeiro: prediction and stats
Carioca B2Group Stage - 7Kick-off on October 5, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Paraty the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Rio de Janeiro. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Paraty vs Rio de Janeiro?
Paraty starts as the favourite with a 190-point Elo edge (1,614 vs 1,424).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Paraty have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Rio de Janeiro have 0, 1 and 14.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2025 | Goytacaz(away) | 2-3 | Carioca B2 |
| Nov 6, 2025 | Santa Cruz RJ(home) | 0-1 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Barra Mansa(away) | 2-1 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 7 de Abril(home) | 1-1 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Serra Macaense(away) | 2-2 | Carioca B2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2025 | 7 de Abril(away) | 2-6 | Carioca B2 |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Serra Macaense(home) | 0-2 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 26, 2025 | SE Belford Roxo(away) | 0-4 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Macaé(home) | 1-6 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Goytacaz(away) | 0-3 | Carioca B2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Paraty win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Rio de Janeiro win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2025 | Paraty 2-0 Rio de Janeiro | Carioca B2 |
Last archived meeting: Paraty vs Rio de Janeiro on Sep 22, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Paraty score 1.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Rio de Janeiro score 0.5 and concede 2.9. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paraty | 1.5 | 1.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Rio de Janeiro | 0.5 | 2.9 | 0 | 6/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Paraty sit 3rd in Carioca B2 (3 points from 1 matches) and Rio de Janeiro sit 7th (0 points from 1 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Paraty | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Rio de Janeiro | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Paraty vs Rio de Janeiro?
- The Footlab model makes Paraty the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Rio de Janeiro.
- Where and when is Paraty vs Rio de Janeiro played?
- Paraty vs Rio de Janeiro is played on October 5, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC), in the Carioca B2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.