Cacahuatique vs Alianza: prediction and stats
Primera DivisionApertura - 16Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Chapeltique, Chapeltique
The Footlab model makes Alianza the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Cacahuatique. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cacahuatique vs Alianza?
Alianza starts as the favourite with a 116-point Elo edge (1,707 vs 1,591).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cacahuatique have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Alianza have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Municipal Limeño(home) | 1-3 | Primera Division |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Alianza(away) | 0-0 | Primera Division |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Fuerte San Francisco(home) | 0-0 | Primera Division |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Águila(home) | 2-2 | Primera Division |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Atletico Balboa(home) | 4-2 | Primera Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Isidro Metapán(away) | 0-2 | Primera Division |
| Aug 20, 2026 | CD Marathon(away) | 1-0 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Cacahuatique(home) | 0-0 | Primera Division |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Real Estelí(away) | 1-3 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Inter(away) | 0-2 | Primera Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Cacahuatique win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Alianza win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Alianza 0-0 Cacahuatique | Primera Division |
| Mar 19, 2026 | Alianza 2-1 Cacahuatique | Primera Division |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Cacahuatique 1-1 Alianza | Primera Division |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Alianza 3-0 Cacahuatique | Primera Division |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Cacahuatique 1-2 Alianza | Primera Division |
| Sep 25, 2025 | Alianza 2-1 Cacahuatique | Primera Division |
Last archived meeting: Alianza vs Cacahuatique on Aug 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Cacahuatique score 1.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Alianza score 1.0 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cacahuatique | 1.2 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Alianza | 1.0 | 1.2 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cacahuatique sit 8th in Primera Division (6 points from 6 matches) and Alianza sit 10th (4 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Cacahuatique | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 6 |
| 10 | Alianza | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cacahuatique vs Alianza?
- The Footlab model makes Alianza the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Cacahuatique.
- Where and when is Cacahuatique vs Alianza played?
- Cacahuatique vs Alianza is played on October 17, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Chapeltique, in the Primera Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.