Caen vs Fleury 91: prediction and stats
Ligue 3Regular Season - 25Kick-off on March 20, 2027 at 06:30 PM (UTC)Stade Michel d'Ornano, Caen
The Footlab model makes Caen the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Fleury 91. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Caen vs Fleury 91?
A very open match: only 62 Elo points separate Caen (1,780) and Fleury 91 (1,841).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Caen have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Fleury 91 have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Aubagne(home) | 1-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Thionville Lusitanos(away) | 3-4 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Valenciennes(home) | 4-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Dieppe(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Al Wakrah(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Orleans(home) | 0-2 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Cannes(away) | 1-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Amiens(home) | 0-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Boulogne(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 15, 2026 | Rouen(home) | 1-2 | Ligue 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Caen win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Fleury 91 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2026 | Caen 1-0 Fleury 91 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 29, 2025 | Fleury 91 1-2 Caen | Ligue 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Caen score 2.2 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Fleury 91 score 1.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caen | 2.2 | 1.2 | 6 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Fleury 91 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Caen sit 4th in Ligue 3 (6 points from 3 matches) and Fleury 91 sit 15th (2 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Caen | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 6 |
| 15 | Fleury 91 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Caen vs Fleury 91?
- The Footlab model makes Caen the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Fleury 91.
- Where and when is Caen vs Fleury 91 played?
- Caen vs Fleury 91 is played on March 20, 2027 at 06:30 PM (UTC) at Stade Michel d'Ornano, in the Ligue 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.