Aubagne vs La Roche VF: prediction and stats
Ligue 3Regular Season - 25Kick-off on March 20, 2027 at 06:30 PM (UTC)Stade de Lattre de Tassigny, Aubagne
The Footlab model makes La Roche VF the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Aubagne. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aubagne vs La Roche VF?
La Roche VF starts as the favourite with a 231-point Elo edge (1,935 vs 1,705).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aubagne have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; La Roche VF have 8, 6 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Caen(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Bastia(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Thionville Lusitanos(home) | 0-3 | Ligue 3 |
| May 15, 2026 | Caen(home) | 3-1 | Ligue 3 |
| May 9, 2026 | Gobelins(away) | 1-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Cannes(home) | 1-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Amiens(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Versailles(home) | 3-2 | Ligue 3 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Nantes(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Le Mans(away) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Aubagne score 0.8 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; La Roche VF score 1.8 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aubagne | 0.8 | 1.8 | 1 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| La Roche VF | 1.8 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aubagne sit 18th in Ligue 3 (0 points from 3 matches) and La Roche VF sit 3rd (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | La Roche VF | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 18 | Aubagne | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aubagne vs La Roche VF?
- The Footlab model makes La Roche VF the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Aubagne.
- Where and when is Aubagne vs La Roche VF played?
- Aubagne vs La Roche VF is played on March 20, 2027 at 06:30 PM (UTC) at Stade de Lattre de Tassigny, in the Ligue 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.