Caen vs La Roche VF: prediction and stats
Ligue 3Regular Season - 10Kick-off on October 15, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Stade Michel d'Ornano, Caen
The Footlab AI model makes La Roche VF the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for Caen. The most likely score is 1-1. If La Roche VF wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Caen vs La Roche VF?
La Roche VF starts as the favourite with a 166-point Elo edge (1,968 vs 1,802).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Caen vs La Roche VF
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Caen
4-3-3- 9F. El Khoumisti
- 20Keelyan Portut
- 10I. Botella
- 24Léo Milliner
- 25Z. Bagbema
- 18J. Bomo
- 3D. Bolumbu
- 23L. Carole
- 12D. Appiah
- 5Y. Diaby
- 16Y. Clémentia
La Roche VF
4-2-3-1- 9M. M. Samb
- 8K. Bensoula
- 10M. Ndiaye
- 26J. Beaulieu
- 17M. Vrignon
- 2M. Mahop
- 18M. Rabuel
- 29G. Violleau
- 5T. Allemand
- 22E. Morel
- 1I. Ahamada
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 04:10 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Caen have 8 wins, 1 draw and 6 defeats; La Roche VF have 9, 6 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Fleury 91(away) | 2-3 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Rouen(home) | 3-2 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Concarneau(away) | 0-2 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Gobelins(home) | 2-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Bourg-en-bresse 01(away) | 2-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Aubagne(home) | 3-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Thionville Lusitanos(away) | 2-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Valenciennes(home) | 3-2 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Villefranche(away) | 0-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Quevilly(home) | 1-1 | Ligue 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Caen score 2.1 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; La Roche VF score 1.7 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caen | 2.1 | 1.6 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| La Roche VF | 1.7 | 0.8 | 6 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Caen sit 7th in Ligue 3 (15 points from 9 matches) and La Roche VF sit 1st (21 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Roche VF | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 8 | 21 |
| 7 | Caen | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 12 | 15 |
A question about Caen vs La Roche VF?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Caen vs La Roche VF?
- The Footlab AI model makes La Roche VF the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for Caen.
- Where and when is Caen vs La Roche VF played?
- Caen vs La Roche VF is played on October 15, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Stade Michel d'Ornano, in the Ligue 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.