Concarneau vs Bastia: prediction and stats
Ligue 3Regular Season - 10Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Stade Francis-Le Blé, Brest
The Footlab model makes Concarneau the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Bastia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Concarneau vs Bastia?
A very open match: only 4 Elo points separate Concarneau (1,774) and Bastia (1,770).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Concarneau have 5 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats; Bastia have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Villefranche(home) | 2-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Quevilly(away) | 1-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Orleans(home) | 0-2 | Ligue 3 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Pontivy GSI(home) | 5-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Laval(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Versailles(home) | 2-3 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Aubagne(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Le Puy Foot(home) | 0-2 | Ligue 3 |
| May 9, 2026 | Le Mans(home) | 0-2 | Ligue 2 |
| May 2, 2026 | Guingamp(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 0 Concarneau win(s), 4 draw(s), 1 Bastia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 23, 2024 | Bastia 2-0 Concarneau | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 5, 2023 | Concarneau 0-0 Bastia | Ligue 2 |
| Mar 5, 2021 | Bastia 1-1 Concarneau | Ligue 3 |
| Oct 2, 2020 | Concarneau 1-1 Bastia | Ligue 3 |
| Jan 5, 2019 | Bastia 4-4 Concarneau | Coupe de France |
How many goals should we expect?
Concarneau score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Bastia score 1.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concarneau | 1.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Bastia | 1.0 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Concarneau sit 9th in Ligue 3 (4 points from 3 matches) and Bastia sit 12th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Concarneau | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 12 | Bastia | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Concarneau vs Bastia?
- The Footlab model makes Concarneau the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Bastia.
- Where and when is Concarneau vs Bastia played?
- Concarneau vs Bastia is played on October 17, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Stade Francis-Le Blé, in the Ligue 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.