Concarneau vs Bastia: prediction and stats
Ligue 3Regular Season - 10Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 12:45 PM (UTC)Stade Francis-Le Blé, Brest
The Footlab AI model makes Concarneau the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Bastia. The most likely score is 1-1. If Concarneau wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Concarneau vs Bastia?
A very open match: only 40 Elo points separate Concarneau (1,820) and Bastia (1,779).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Concarneau vs Bastia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Concarneau
4-2-3-1- 9S. Janno
- 8M. Picouleau
- 24C. Divialle Corbière
- 23L. Goujon
- 18F. Da Silva
- 22B. Macon
- 27J. Halby-Touré
- 5B. Etcheverria
- 6D. Seba
- 15Demba Yatera
- 1V. Viot
Bastia
4-2-3-1- 12L. Belal
- 17J. Eickmayer
- 4A. Roncaglia
- 22I. Monnier
- 3H. Makalou
- 9F. Tomi
- 35N. Douce
- 2N. Zilliox
- 20G. Akueson
- 34D. Djedje
- 1T. De Percin
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 01:13 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Concarneau have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Bastia have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Gobelins(home) | 2-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bourg-en-bresse 01(away) | 1-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Caen(home) | 2-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Aubagne(away) | 2-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Thionville Lusitanos(home) | 2-2 | Ligue 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | Orleans(home) | 1-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Gobelins(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Cannes(home) | 1-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Bourg-en-bresse 01(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Amiens(home) | 0-3 | Ligue 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 0 Concarneau wins, 4 draws, 1 Bastia win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 23, 2024 | Bastia 2-0 Concarneau | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 5, 2023 | Concarneau 0-0 Bastia | Ligue 2 |
| Mar 5, 2021 | Bastia 1-1 Concarneau | Ligue 3 |
| Oct 2, 2020 | Concarneau 1-1 Bastia | Ligue 3 |
| Jan 5, 2019 | Bastia 4-4 Concarneau | Coupe de France |
How many goals should we expect?
Concarneau score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Bastia score 1.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concarneau | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Bastia | 1.0 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Concarneau sit 3rd in Ligue 3 (16 points from 9 matches) and Bastia sit 12th (11 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Concarneau | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 8 | 16 |
| 12 | Bastia | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 11 |
A question about Concarneau vs Bastia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Concarneau vs Bastia?
- The Footlab AI model makes Concarneau the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Bastia.
- Where and when is Concarneau vs Bastia played?
- Concarneau vs Bastia is played on October 17, 2026 at 12:45 PM (UTC) at Stade Francis-Le Blé, in the Ligue 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.