Barry Town vs Caernarfon Town: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 18Kick-off on November 27, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Jenner Park, Barry / Y Barri, Vale of Glamorgan
The Footlab model makes Barry Town the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Caernarfon Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Barry Town vs Caernarfon Town?
A very open match: only 60 Elo points separate Barry Town (1,974) and Caernarfon Town (1,914).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Barry Town have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Caernarfon Town have 9, 0 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Holywell(away) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cardiff MET(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Flint Town United(away) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Cambrian & Clydach(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Gloucester City(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Trefelin(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Colwyn Bay(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Penybont(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | GAP Connah S Quay FC(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | FC Levadia Tallinn(away) | 0-5 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Barry Town win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Caernarfon Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Barry Town 2-1 Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
| Feb 14, 2026 | Caernarfon Town 0-2 Barry Town | Premier League |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Barry Town 2-2 Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
| Sep 7, 2025 | Caernarfon Town 3-1 Barry Town | Premier League |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Caernarfon Town 5-2 Barry Town | Premier League |
| Dec 14, 2024 | Caernarfon Town 3-2 Barry Town | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Barry Town vs Caernarfon Town on Mar 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Barry Town score 1.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Caernarfon Town score 1.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barry Town | 1.9 | 0.9 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Caernarfon Town | 1.7 | 1.7 | 6 | 6/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Barry Town sit 1st in Premier League (12 points from 4 matches) and Caernarfon Town sit 6th (9 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barry Town | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 12 |
| 6 | Caernarfon Town | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Barry Town vs Caernarfon Town?
- The Footlab model makes Barry Town the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Caernarfon Town.
- Where and when is Barry Town vs Caernarfon Town played?
- Barry Town vs Caernarfon Town is played on November 27, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Jenner Park, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.