Caicara vs Comercial PI: prediction and stats
Piauiense - 2Regular Season - 5Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Caicara the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Comercial PI. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Caicara vs Comercial PI?
A very open match: only 43 Elo points separate Caicara (1,577) and Comercial PI (1,534).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 5 matches in all competitions, Caicara have 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Comercial PI have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | Teresina Esporte Club(away) | 1-2 | Piauiense - 2 |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Flamengo PI(home) | 0-0 | Piauiense - 2 |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Comercial PI(home) | 0-2 | Piauiense - 2 |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Picos(away) | 2-2 | Piauiense - 2 |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Corí-Sabbá(home) | 0-1 | Piauiense - 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2025 | Corí-Sabbá(away) | 1-2 | Piauiense - 2 |
| Oct 23, 2025 | Corí-Sabbá(home) | 0-0 | Piauiense - 2 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Flamengo PI(home) | 0-1 | Piauiense - 2 |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Corí-Sabbá(away) | 1-2 | Piauiense - 2 |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Caicara(away) | 2-0 | Piauiense - 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Caicara win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Comercial PI win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2025 | Caicara 0-2 Comercial PI | Piauiense - 2 |
Last archived meeting: Caicara vs Comercial PI on Oct 5, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Caicara score 0.6 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 5; Comercial PI score 0.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caicara | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1 | 2/5 | 2/5 |
| Comercial PI | 0.9 | 1.5 | 3 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 5 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Caicara vs Comercial PI?
- The Footlab model makes Caicara the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Comercial PI.
- Where and when is Caicara vs Comercial PI played?
- Caicara vs Comercial PI is played on September 26, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC), in the Piauiense - 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.