River AC vs 4 de Julho: prediction and stats
Piauiense - 2Regular Season - 5Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal Lindolfo Monteiro, Teresina, Piauí
The Footlab model makes River AC the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for 4 de Julho. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win River AC vs 4 de Julho?
A very open match: only 65 Elo points separate River AC (1,650) and 4 de Julho (1,585).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, River AC have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; 4 de Julho have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2025 | Piauí(away) | 0-2 | Piauiense |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Piauí(home) | 1-0 | Piauiense |
| Feb 17, 2025 | Fluminense PI(home) | 1-1 | Piauiense |
| Feb 8, 2025 | Altos(away) | 0-1 | Piauiense |
| Feb 3, 2025 | Atlético Piauiense(home) | 1-1 | Piauiense |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2025 | Altos(away) | 0-4 | Piauiense |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Altos(home) | 1-0 | Piauiense |
| Feb 16, 2025 | Parnahyba(home) | 2-4 | Piauiense |
| Feb 9, 2025 | Oeirense(home) | 1-2 | Piauiense |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Piauí(away) | 1-1 | Piauiense |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 River AC win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 4 de Julho win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2024 | River AC 1-1 4 de Julho | Piauiense |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 4 de Julho 0-1 River AC | Piauiense |
| Feb 15, 2023 | River AC 2-1 4 de Julho | Piauiense |
| Jan 15, 2023 | 4 de Julho 1-1 River AC | Piauiense |
| Mar 25, 2022 | River AC 1-0 4 de Julho | Piauiense |
| Feb 6, 2022 | 4 de Julho 1-0 River AC | Piauiense |
Last archived meeting: River AC vs 4 de Julho on Feb 17, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
River AC score 0.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; 4 de Julho score 1.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| River AC | 0.9 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| 4 de Julho | 1.1 | 1.7 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for River AC vs 4 de Julho?
- The Footlab model makes River AC the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for 4 de Julho.
- Where and when is River AC vs 4 de Julho played?
- River AC vs 4 de Julho is played on September 26, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal Lindolfo Monteiro, in the Piauiense - 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.