Campo Grande vs Carapebus: prediction and stats
Carioca - 2Regular Season - 1Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Mauro Sampaio, Juazeiro do Norte, Ceará
The Footlab model makes Campo Grande the favourite at 46%, against 30% for a draw and 24% for Carapebus. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Campo Grande vs Carapebus?
A very open match: only 85 Elo points separate Campo Grande (1,644) and Carapebus (1,559).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Campo Grande have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Carapebus have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | Petrópolis(away) | 1-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Nova Cidade(away) | 0-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Carapebus(home) | 0-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Niteroiense(home) | 1-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Paduano(away) | 1-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | Duque de Caxias(home) | 0-2 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Bonsucesso(home) | 1-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Campo Grande(away) | 1-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Artsul(away) | 1-3 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Serrano RJ(home) | 0-0 | Carioca - 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 3 Campo Grande win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Carapebus win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2025 | Campo Grande 0-1 Carapebus | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 24, 2024 | Campo Grande 1-0 Carapebus | Carioca B2 |
| Nov 20, 2024 | Carapebus 1-3 Campo Grande | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 31, 2024 | Campo Grande 2-0 Carapebus | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 23, 2021 | Carapebus 1-0 Campo Grande | Carioca - 2 |
Last archived meeting: Campo Grande vs Carapebus on Nov 1, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Campo Grande score 0.7 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Carapebus score 0.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Campo Grande | 0.7 | 0.9 | 4 | 6/15 | 1/15 |
| Carapebus | 0.5 | 1.3 | 6 | 3/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Campo Grande sit 8th in Carioca - 2 (15 points from 11 matches) and Carapebus sit 10th (12 points from 11 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Campo Grande | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 15 |
| 10 | Carapebus | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 12 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Campo Grande vs Carapebus?
- The Footlab model makes Campo Grande the favourite at 46%, against 30% for a draw and 24% for Carapebus.
- Where and when is Campo Grande vs Carapebus played?
- Campo Grande vs Carapebus is played on September 5, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Mauro Sampaio, in the Carioca - 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.