Duque de Caxias vs Nova Cidade: prediction and stats
Carioca - 2Regular Season - 1Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Romário de Souza Faria, Duque de Caxias, Rio de Janeiro
The Footlab model makes Duque de Caxias the favourite at 41%, against 31% for a draw and 29% for Nova Cidade. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Duque de Caxias vs Nova Cidade?
A very open match: only 55 Elo points separate Duque de Caxias (1,623) and Nova Cidade (1,568).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Duque de Caxias have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Nova Cidade have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 23, 2026 | Olaria(away) | 0-4 | Copa Rio |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Olaria(home) | 0-2 | Copa Rio |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Bonsucesso(away) | 0-2 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Bonsucesso(home) | 1-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Carapebus(away) | 2-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | Friburguense(home) | 1-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Campo Grande(home) | 1-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Duque de Caxias(away) | 2-2 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Bonsucesso(away) | 0-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Artsul(home) | 0-0 | Carioca - 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Duque de Caxias win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Nova Cidade win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2025 | Duque de Caxias 2-2 Nova Cidade | Carioca - 2 |
| Sep 9, 2023 | Duque de Caxias 2-0 Nova Cidade | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 8, 2022 | Nova Cidade 0-0 Duque de Caxias | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 17, 2021 | Nova Cidade 2-2 Duque de Caxias | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 3, 2020 | Duque de Caxias 1-0 Nova Cidade | Carioca - 2 |
| Sep 11, 2019 | Nova Cidade 1-0 Duque de Caxias | Carioca - 2 |
Last archived meeting: Duque de Caxias vs Nova Cidade on Nov 1, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Duque de Caxias score 0.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Nova Cidade score 0.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duque de Caxias | 0.7 | 1.1 | 7 | 3/15 | 4/15 |
| Nova Cidade | 0.9 | 0.9 | 8 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Duque de Caxias sit 4th in Carioca - 2 (18 points from 11 matches) and Nova Cidade sit 7th (16 points from 11 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Duque de Caxias | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 18 |
| 7 | Nova Cidade | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 16 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Duque de Caxias vs Nova Cidade?
- The Footlab model makes Duque de Caxias the favourite at 41%, against 31% for a draw and 29% for Nova Cidade.
- Where and when is Duque de Caxias vs Nova Cidade played?
- Duque de Caxias vs Nova Cidade is played on September 5, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Romário de Souza Faria, in the Carioca - 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.