Niteroiense vs Serrano RJ: prediction and stats
Carioca - 2Regular Season - 1Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Niteroiense the favourite at 42%, against 30% for a draw and 28% for Serrano RJ. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Niteroiense vs Serrano RJ?
A very open match: only 57 Elo points separate Niteroiense (1,676) and Serrano RJ (1,619).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Niteroiense have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Serrano RJ have 3, 7 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | Paduano(home) | 5-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Duque de Caxias(home) | 0-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Friburguense(away) | 1-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Campo Grande(away) | 1-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Bonsucesso(home) | 2-3 | Carioca - 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 2026 | América RJ(away) | 0-5 | Carioca A2 |
| Jun 27, 2026 | São Gonçalo EC RJ(home) | 0-3 | Carioca A2 |
| Jun 24, 2026 | São Gonçalo EC RJ(away) | 2-3 | Copa Rio |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Resende(away) | 0-0 | Carioca A2 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | São Gonçalo EC RJ(home) | 0-0 | Copa Rio |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Niteroiense win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Serrano RJ win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2025 | Niteroiense 1-3 Serrano RJ | Carioca - 2 |
Last archived meeting: Niteroiense vs Serrano RJ on Oct 4, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Niteroiense score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Serrano RJ score 0.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niteroiense | 1.3 | 1.4 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Serrano RJ | 0.9 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Niteroiense sit 5th in Carioca - 2 (16 points from 11 matches) and Serrano RJ sit 3rd (18 points from 11 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Serrano RJ | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 18 |
| 5 | Niteroiense | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 16 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Niteroiense vs Serrano RJ?
- The Footlab model makes Niteroiense the favourite at 42%, against 30% for a draw and 28% for Serrano RJ.
- Where and when is Niteroiense vs Serrano RJ played?
- Niteroiense vs Serrano RJ is played on September 5, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC), in the Carioca - 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.