Campo Grande vs Duque de Caxias: prediction and stats
Carioca - 2Regular Season - 7Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Mauro Sampaio, Juazeiro do Norte, Ceará
The Footlab model makes Campo Grande the favourite at 38%, against 32% for a draw and 30% for Duque de Caxias. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Campo Grande vs Duque de Caxias?
A very open match: only 23 Elo points separate Campo Grande (1,644) and Duque de Caxias (1,621).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Campo Grande have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Duque de Caxias have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | Petrópolis(away) | 1-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Nova Cidade(away) | 0-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Carapebus(home) | 0-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Niteroiense(home) | 1-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Paduano(away) | 1-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 23, 2026 | Olaria(away) | 0-4 | Copa Rio |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Olaria(home) | 0-2 | Copa Rio |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Bonsucesso(away) | 0-2 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Bonsucesso(home) | 1-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Carapebus(away) | 2-0 | Carioca - 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Campo Grande win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Duque de Caxias win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2025 | Duque de Caxias 0-0 Campo Grande | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 26, 2022 | Campo Grande 0-1 Duque de Caxias | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 13, 2021 | Duque de Caxias 1-3 Campo Grande | Carioca - 2 |
Last archived meeting: Duque de Caxias vs Campo Grande on Oct 4, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Campo Grande score 0.7 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Duque de Caxias score 0.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 34% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Campo Grande | 0.7 | 0.9 | 4 | 6/15 | 1/15 |
| Duque de Caxias | 0.7 | 1.1 | 7 | 3/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Campo Grande sit 8th in Carioca - 2 (15 points from 11 matches) and Duque de Caxias sit 4th (18 points from 11 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Duque de Caxias | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 18 |
| 8 | Campo Grande | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 15 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Campo Grande vs Duque de Caxias?
- The Footlab model makes Campo Grande the favourite at 38%, against 32% for a draw and 30% for Duque de Caxias.
- Where and when is Campo Grande vs Duque de Caxias played?
- Campo Grande vs Duque de Caxias is played on October 17, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Mauro Sampaio, in the Carioca - 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 34% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.