Serrano RJ vs Carapebus: prediction and stats
Carioca - 2Regular Season - 7Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Atílio Marotti, Petrópolis, Rio de Janeiro
The Footlab AI model makes Serrano RJ the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Carapebus. The most likely score is 1-1. If Serrano RJ wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,495 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Serrano RJ vs Carapebus?
Serrano RJ starts as the favourite with a 120-point Elo edge (1,537 vs 1,417).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Serrano RJ vs Carapebus
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Serrano RJ
Not enough data to predict the Serrano RJ lineup.
Carapebus
Not enough data to predict the Carapebus lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 06:32 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Serrano RJ have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Carapebus have 2, 3 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Macaé(home) | 1-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Artsul(away) | 4-3 | Carioca - 2 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Campo Grande(home) | 1-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Audax Rio(away) | 1-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Goytacaz(home) | 0-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Niteroiense(home) | 1-3 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Macaé(away) | 3-4 | Carioca - 2 |
| Sep 25, 2026 | São Cristóvão RJ(home) | 0-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Artsul(away) | 0-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Duque de Caxias(home) | 1-4 | Carioca - 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Serrano RJ win, 1 draw, 0 Carapebus wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | Carapebus 0-0 Serrano RJ | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 17, 2021 | Serrano RJ 2-0 Carapebus | Carioca - 2 |
Last archived meeting: Carapebus vs Serrano RJ on Oct 18, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Serrano RJ score 0.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Carapebus score 0.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serrano RJ | 0.9 | 1.5 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Carapebus | 0.7 | 1.7 | 4 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Serrano RJ sit 3rd in Carioca - 2 (11 points from 6 matches) and Carapebus sit 11th (1 point from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Serrano RJ | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 11 |
| 11 | Carapebus | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 1 |
A question about Serrano RJ vs Carapebus?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Serrano RJ vs Carapebus?
- The Footlab AI model makes Serrano RJ the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Carapebus.
- Where and when is Serrano RJ vs Carapebus played?
- Serrano RJ vs Carapebus is played on October 17, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Atílio Marotti, in the Carioca - 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.