Cardoso Moreira vs Friburguense: prediction and stats
Carioca B2Group Stage - 10Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Cardoso Moreira the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Friburguense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cardoso Moreira vs Friburguense?
Cardoso Moreira starts as the favourite with a 177-point Elo edge (1,722 vs 1,544).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 11 matches in all competitions, Cardoso Moreira have 10 wins, 1 draws and 0 defeats; Friburguense have 2, 4 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 2026 | Búzios(home) | 2-1 | Carioca C |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Campos AA(away) | 2-1 | Carioca C |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Campos AA(home) | 4-1 | Carioca C |
| Jul 5, 2026 | Barra Mansa(away) | 2-2 | Carioca C |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Independente RJ(home) | 2-0 | Carioca C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | Nova Cidade(away) | 0-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Paduano(away) | 0-2 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Niteroiense(home) | 0-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | São Cristóvão RJ(away) | 1-3 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Duque de Caxias(home) | 0-1 | Carioca - 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Cardoso Moreira score 2.1 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 11; Friburguense score 0.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardoso Moreira | 2.1 | 0.5 | 7 | 4/11 | 5/11 |
| Friburguense | 0.5 | 1.0 | 3 | 4/15 | 1/15 |
Over the last 11 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cardoso Moreira vs Friburguense?
- The Footlab model makes Cardoso Moreira the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Friburguense.
- Where and when is Cardoso Moreira vs Friburguense played?
- Cardoso Moreira vs Friburguense is played on October 25, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC), in the Carioca B2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.