Serra Macaense vs Paraty: prediction and stats
Carioca B2Group Stage - 10Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Antônio Ferreira de Medeiros, Cardoso Moreira, Rio de Janeiro
The Footlab AI model makes Serra Macaense the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Paraty. The most likely score is 1-1. If Serra Macaense wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Serra Macaense vs Paraty?
Serra Macaense starts as the favourite with a 129-point Elo edge (1,491 vs 1,362).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Serra Macaense vs Paraty
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Serra Macaense
Not enough data to predict the Serra Macaense lineup.
Paraty
Not enough data to predict the Paraty lineup.
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:40 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Serra Macaense have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Paraty have 1, 2 and 12.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | SE Belford Roxo(away) | 1-1 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 5, 2026 | Santa Cruz RJ(home) | 3-0 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Cardoso Moreira(away) | 3-2 | Carioca B2 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Rio de Janeiro(home) | 2-1 | Carioca B2 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Búzios(away) | 2-0 | Carioca B2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Cardoso Moreira(away) | 1-6 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 5, 2026 | Rio de Janeiro(home) | 0-4 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Búzios(away) | 2-3 | Carioca B2 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Paduano(home) | 0-3 | Carioca B2 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 7 de Abril(away) | 0-1 | Carioca B2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Serra Macaense wins, 1 draw, 0 Paraty wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2025 | Serra Macaense 2-2 Paraty | Carioca B2 |
Last archived meeting: Serra Macaense vs Paraty on Oct 12, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Serra Macaense score 1.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Paraty score 0.8 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serra Macaense | 1.5 | 1.0 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Paraty | 0.8 | 2.5 | 0 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Serra Macaense sit 4th in Carioca B2 (14 points from 8 matches) and Paraty sit 12th (0 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Serra Macaense | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 9 | 14 |
| 12 | Paraty | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
A question about Serra Macaense vs Paraty?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Serra Macaense vs Paraty?
- The Footlab AI model makes Serra Macaense the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Paraty.
- Where and when is Serra Macaense vs Paraty played?
- Serra Macaense vs Paraty is played on October 25, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Antônio Ferreira de Medeiros, in the Carioca B2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.