Alfaro vs River Ebro: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Group 16 - 11Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio La Molineta, Alfaro
The Footlab AI model makes Alfaro the favourite at 61%, against 22% for a draw and 17% for River Ebro. The most likely score is 1-1. If Alfaro wins, the most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alfaro vs River Ebro?
Alfaro starts as the favourite with a 190-point Elo edge (1,702 vs 1,512).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Alfaro vs River Ebro
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Alfaro
Not enough data to predict the Alfaro lineup.
River Ebro
4-3-3- JJhan Martínez
- AAdrián Montoya
- OOmar Laanaya
- DDani Garrido
- SSolomon Teiko
- RRubén Melero Ladrón
- AAyoub Jaouak
- RRicardo Sáinz
- GGonzalo Hernandez
- ÁÁlvaro Ruiz
- DDavid Martinez
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 12:29 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alfaro have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; River Ebro have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Casalarreina(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Calahorra(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Anguiano(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Haro Deportivo(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Yagüe(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | Pradejón(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | San Marcial(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Cenicero(home) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Yagüe(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Berceo(away) | 0-7 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 3 Alfaro wins, 0 draws, 2 River Ebro wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2024 | Alfaro 1-2 River Ebro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Nov 5, 2023 | River Ebro 1-2 Alfaro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Mar 27, 2022 | River Ebro 2-0 Alfaro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Nov 14, 2021 | Alfaro 2-0 River Ebro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 27, 2019 | Alfaro 2-1 River Ebro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
How many goals should we expect?
Alfaro score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; River Ebro score 1.0 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfaro | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| River Ebro | 1.0 | 2.3 | 1 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alfaro sit 2nd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 (13 points from 6 matches) and River Ebro sit 16th (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Alfaro | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 13 |
| 16 | River Ebro | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 4 |
A question about Alfaro vs River Ebro?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alfaro vs River Ebro?
- The Footlab AI model makes Alfaro the favourite at 61%, against 22% for a draw and 17% for River Ebro.
- Where and when is Alfaro vs River Ebro played?
- Alfaro vs River Ebro is played on November 15, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Molineta, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 16.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.