Casarano vs Audace Cerignola: prediction and stats
Serie C - Girone CGirone C - 5Kick-off on September 16, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Giuseppe Capozza, Casarano
The Footlab model makes Casarano the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Audace Cerignola. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Casarano vs Audace Cerignola?
A very open match: only 6 Elo points separate Casarano (1,858) and Audace Cerignola (1,865).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Casarano have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Audace Cerignola have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Potenza(away) | 1-4 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Bari(away) | 0-1 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| May 20, 2026 | Union Brescia(away) | 0-0 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
| May 17, 2026 | Union Brescia(home) | 0-3 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
| May 13, 2026 | Renate(away) | 3-0 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cosenza(home) | 3-1 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Aug 14, 2026 | SS Monopoli(home) | 1-1 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| May 3, 2026 | Crotone(away) | 1-1 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Benevento(away) | 2-2 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Team Altamura(home) | 1-1 | Serie C - Girone C |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Casarano win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Audace Cerignola win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 20, 2026 | Audace Cerignola 2-1 Casarano | Serie C - Girone C |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Audace Cerignola 2-1 Casarano | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Casarano 3-0 Audace Cerignola | Serie C - Girone C |
| Feb 13, 2022 | Audace Cerignola 1-0 Casarano | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 6, 2021 | Casarano 2-0 Audace Cerignola | Serie D - Girone H |
| Jan 5, 2020 | Casarano 1-2 Audace Cerignola | Serie D - Girone H |
Last archived meeting: Audace Cerignola vs Casarano on Feb 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Casarano score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Audace Cerignola score 1.5 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casarano | 1.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Audace Cerignola | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Casarano sit 19th in Serie C - Girone C (0 points from 1 matches) and Audace Cerignola sit 3rd (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Audace Cerignola | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 19 | Casarano | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Casarano vs Audace Cerignola?
- The Footlab model makes Casarano the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Audace Cerignola.
- Where and when is Casarano vs Audace Cerignola played?
- Casarano vs Audace Cerignola is played on September 16, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Giuseppe Capozza, in the Serie C - Girone C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.