Castellanzese vs Varesina: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone DGroup D - 9Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Giovanni Provasi, Castellanza
The Footlab model makes Varesina the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Castellanzese. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Castellanzese vs Varesina?
A very open match: only 64 Elo points separate Castellanzese (1,657) and Varesina (1,722).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Castellanzese have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Varesina have 5, 7 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Varesina(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone B |
| May 3, 2026 | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Milan II(home) | 1-3 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Chievo(away) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Leon Monza e Brianza(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Castellanzese(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone B |
| May 3, 2026 | Caldiero Terme(away) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Breno(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Milan II(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Chievo(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Castellanzese win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Varesina win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Castellanzese 1-2 Varesina | Serie D - Girone B |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Varesina 2-2 Castellanzese | Serie D - Girone B |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Castellanzese 2-1 Varesina | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Varesina 1-1 Castellanzese | Serie D - Girone B |
| Nov 24, 2024 | Castellanzese 0-0 Varesina | Serie D - Girone B |
| Jan 13, 2024 | Varesina 2-0 Castellanzese | Serie D - Girone B |
Last archived meeting: Castellanzese vs Varesina on May 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Castellanzese score 1.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Varesina score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castellanzese | 1.0 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Varesina | 1.3 | 1.1 | 3 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Castellanzese vs Varesina?
- The Footlab model makes Varesina the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Castellanzese.
- Where and when is Castellanzese vs Varesina played?
- Castellanzese vs Varesina is played on October 25, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Giovanni Provasi, in the Serie D - Girone D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.