Pavia vs USD Casatese: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone DGroup D - 9Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes USD Casatese the favourite at 52%, against 28% for a draw and 20% for Pavia. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pavia vs USD Casatese?
USD Casatese starts as the favourite with a 162-point Elo edge (1,821 vs 1,660).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Pavia vs USD Casatese
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Pavia
Not enough data to predict the Pavia lineup.
USD Casatese
Not enough data to predict the USD Casatese lineup.
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 10:53 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pavia have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; USD Casatese have 11, 1 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Varesina(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Sant'Angelo(home) | 1-3 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Correggese(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Arconatese(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Sant'Angelo(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Cittadella Vis Modena(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Pistoiese(home) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Varesina(home) | 4-2 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Correggese(away) | 3-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sant'Angelo(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone D |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Pavia wins, 1 draw, 1 USD Casatese win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | USD Casatese 1-0 Pavia | Serie D - Girone B |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Pavia 3-3 USD Casatese | Serie D - Girone B |
Last archived meeting: USD Casatese vs Pavia on Apr 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Pavia score 1.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; USD Casatese score 1.9 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pavia | 1.0 | 1.3 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| USD Casatese | 1.9 | 0.8 | 9 | 5/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pavia sit 9th in Serie D - Girone D (8 points from 7 matches) and USD Casatese sit 6th (13 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | USD Casatese | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 13 |
| 9 | Pavia | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 8 |
A question about Pavia vs USD Casatese?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pavia vs USD Casatese?
- The Footlab AI model makes USD Casatese the favourite at 52%, against 28% for a draw and 20% for Pavia.
- Where and when is Pavia vs USD Casatese played?
- Pavia vs USD Casatese is played on October 25, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC), in the Serie D - Girone D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.