Pavia vs USD Casatese: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone DGroup D - 9Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes USD Casatese the favourite at 49%, against 28% for a draw and 23% for Pavia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pavia vs USD Casatese?
USD Casatese starts as the favourite with a 125-point Elo edge (1,821 vs 1,697).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pavia have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; USD Casatese have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 19, 2026 | Pisa(away) | 1-6 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 10, 2026 | Breno(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone B |
| May 3, 2026 | Chievo(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo(home) | 3-0 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 19, 2026 | USD Casatese(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Chievo(home) | 2-3 | Serie D - Girone B |
| May 10, 2026 | Leon Monza e Brianza(home) | 4-0 | Serie D - Girone B |
| May 3, 2026 | Leon Monza e Brianza(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Scanzorosciate(away) | 3-0 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Pavia(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Pavia win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 USD Casatese win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | USD Casatese 1-0 Pavia | Serie D - Girone B |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Pavia 3-3 USD Casatese | Serie D - Girone B |
Last archived meeting: USD Casatese vs Pavia on Apr 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Pavia score 1.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; USD Casatese score 1.5 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pavia | 1.0 | 1.1 | 7 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| USD Casatese | 1.5 | 0.6 | 9 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pavia vs USD Casatese?
- The Footlab model makes USD Casatese the favourite at 49%, against 28% for a draw and 23% for Pavia.
- Where and when is Pavia vs USD Casatese played?
- Pavia vs USD Casatese is played on October 25, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC), in the Serie D - Girone D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.