Castro vs Atlético Albericia: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Group 3 - 23Kick-off on February 21, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Campo Riomar, Castro Urdiales
The Footlab model makes Atlético Albericia the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Castro. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Castro vs Atlético Albericia?
Atlético Albericia starts as the favourite with a 109-point Elo edge (1,811 vs 1,702).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Castro have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Atlético Albericia have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Tropezón(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| May 3, 2026 | Cartes(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Gimnástica Torrelavega(home) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Revilla(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Guarnizo(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Selaya(home) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| May 3, 2026 | Escobedo(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Laredo(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Vimenor(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Bezana(away) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Castro win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Atlético Albericia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2026 | Castro 0-2 Atlético Albericia | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Atlético Albericia 2-0 Castro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Atlético Albericia 2-1 Castro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Castro 0-2 Atlético Albericia | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Mar 28, 2024 | Castro 2-1 Atlético Albericia | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Nov 11, 2023 | Atlético Albericia 3-0 Castro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
Last archived meeting: Castro vs Atlético Albericia on Feb 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Castro score 1.2 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Atlético Albericia score 2.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castro | 1.2 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Atlético Albericia | 2.1 | 1.5 | 5 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Castro sit 11th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 (38 points from 34 matches) and Atlético Albericia sit 7th (56 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Atlético Albericia | 34 | 17 | 5 | 12 | 61 | 45 | 56 |
| 11 | Castro | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 44 | 47 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Castro vs Atlético Albericia?
- The Footlab model makes Atlético Albericia the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Castro.
- Where and when is Castro vs Atlético Albericia played?
- Castro vs Atlético Albericia is played on February 21, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Riomar, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.