Escobedo vs Castro: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Group 3 - 24Kick-off on February 28, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Eusebio Arce, Escobedo de Camargo
The Footlab AI model makes Escobedo the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Castro. The most likely score is 1-1. If Escobedo wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,403 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Escobedo vs Castro?
Escobedo starts as the favourite with a 126-point Elo edge (1,802 vs 1,676).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Escobedo vs Castro
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Escobedo
Not enough data to predict the Escobedo lineup.
Castro
Not enough data to predict the Castro lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 03:51 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Escobedo have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Castro have 2, 4 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Revilla(home) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Solares(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Selaya(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Laredo(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Bezana(home) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Atlético Albericia(away) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Tropezón(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Atlético Mineros(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Revilla(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Solares(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Escobedo wins, 0 draws, 0 Castro wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | Castro 1-2 Escobedo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Escobedo 2-0 Castro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Feb 10, 2024 | Escobedo 4-0 Castro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 24, 2023 | Castro 0-2 Escobedo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Jan 14, 2023 | Escobedo 4-1 Castro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 10, 2022 | Castro 0-2 Escobedo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Escobedo score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Castro score 1.0 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Escobedo | 1.5 | 1.5 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Castro | 1.0 | 1.6 | 3 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Escobedo sit 14th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 (5 points from 6 matches) and Castro sit 13th (5 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Castro | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 5 |
| 14 | Escobedo | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 5 |
A question about Escobedo vs Castro?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Escobedo vs Castro?
- The Footlab AI model makes Escobedo the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Castro.
- Where and when is Escobedo vs Castro played?
- Escobedo vs Castro is played on February 28, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Eusebio Arce, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.