Castro vs Guarnizo: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Group 3 - 11Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Campo Riomar, Castro Urdiales
The Footlab model makes Guarnizo the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Castro. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Castro vs Guarnizo?
Guarnizo starts as the favourite with a 144-point Elo edge (1,846 vs 1,701).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Castro have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Guarnizo have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Tropezón(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| May 3, 2026 | Cartes(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Gimnástica Torrelavega(home) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Revilla(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Guarnizo(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Tropezón(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| May 17, 2026 | Tropezón(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| May 9, 2026 | Bezana(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| May 3, 2026 | Torina(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Barquereño(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Castro win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Guarnizo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Castro 0-1 Guarnizo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Guarnizo 2-0 Castro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Feb 9, 2025 | Castro 3-2 Guarnizo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Guarnizo 0-2 Castro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Mar 9, 2024 | Guarnizo 0-0 Castro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 22, 2023 | Castro 3-2 Guarnizo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Castro score 1.2 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Guarnizo score 1.3 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castro | 1.2 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Guarnizo | 1.3 | 0.6 | 9 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Castro sit 11th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 (38 points from 34 matches) and Guarnizo sit 4th (66 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Guarnizo | 34 | 19 | 9 | 6 | 47 | 26 | 66 |
| 11 | Castro | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 44 | 47 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Castro vs Guarnizo?
- The Footlab model makes Guarnizo the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Castro.
- Where and when is Castro vs Guarnizo played?
- Castro vs Guarnizo is played on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Riomar, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.