Castuera vs Jaraíz: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Group 14 - 32Kick-off on April 25, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Manuel Ruiz, Castuera
The Footlab AI model makes Castuera the favourite at 48%, against 28% for a draw and 24% for Jaraíz. The most likely score is 1-1. If Castuera wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 4,598 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 6, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Castuera vs Jaraíz?
On Elo ratings, Castuera has 1,737 points and Jaraíz 1,846.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Castuera vs Jaraíz
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Castuera
4-3-3- ÁÁlex Cañero
- FFernando MartÃnez
- JJorge Gonzalez
- PPepe Gil
- AAbraham Bueno
- 18Loren Ruiz
- AAlejandro Chavero
- GGuille
- JJuanjo Neiva
- DDuvan Salgado
- 13Ángel Luengo Gutiérrez
Jaraíz
Not enough data to predict the Jaraíz lineup.
Computed on November 6, 2026 at 05:36 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Castuera have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Jaraíz have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Villafranca(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Llerenense(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Quintana(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Moralo(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Atlético Pueblonuevo(home) | 5-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Villanovense(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Guadiana(home) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Azuaga(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Cabeza Buey(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Montijo(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Castuera win, 1 draw, 2 Jaraíz wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2025 | Castuera 3-3 Jaraíz | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Nov 24, 2024 | Jaraíz 2-1 Castuera | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Jaraíz 2-1 Castuera | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Dec 3, 2023 | Castuera 1-0 Jaraíz | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
How many goals should we expect?
Castuera score 1.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Jaraíz score 1.2 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castuera | 1.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Jaraíz | 1.2 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Castuera sit 4th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 (17 points from 9 matches) and Jaraíz sit 12th (9 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Castuera | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 6 | 17 |
| 12 | Jaraíz | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 9 |
A question about Castuera vs Jaraíz?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Castuera vs Jaraíz?
- The Footlab AI model makes Castuera the favourite at 48%, against 28% for a draw and 24% for Jaraíz.
- Where and when is Castuera vs Jaraíz played?
- Castuera vs Jaraíz is played on April 25, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Manuel Ruiz, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 14.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.