Castuera vs Jaraíz: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Group 14 - 32Kick-off on April 25, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Manuel Ruiz, Castuera
The Footlab model makes Jaraíz the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Castuera. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Castuera vs Jaraíz?
Jaraíz starts as the favourite with a 198-point Elo edge (1,879 vs 1,681).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Castuera have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Jaraíz have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2025 | Badajoz(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 4, 2025 | Trujillo(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Atlético Pueblonuevo(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 17, 2025 | Puebla Calzada(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 11, 2025 | Extremadura 1924(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Badajoz(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 17, 2026 | Badajoz(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 10, 2026 | Villanovense(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 3, 2026 | Cabeza Buey(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Llerenense(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Castuera win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Jaraíz win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2025 | Castuera 3-3 Jaraíz | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Nov 24, 2024 | Jaraíz 2-1 Castuera | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Jaraíz 2-1 Castuera | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Dec 3, 2023 | Castuera 1-0 Jaraíz | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
How many goals should we expect?
Castuera score 1.5 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Jaraíz score 1.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castuera | 1.5 | 2.1 | 0 | 12/15 | 13/15 |
| Jaraíz | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Jaraíz | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 53 | 33 | 59 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Castuera vs Jaraíz?
- The Footlab model makes Jaraíz the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Castuera.
- Where and when is Castuera vs Jaraíz played?
- Castuera vs Jaraíz is played on April 25, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Manuel Ruiz, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 14.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.