Llerenense vs Castuera: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Group 14 - 25Kick-off on March 7, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Fernando Robina, Llerena
The Footlab AI model makes Llerenense the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Castuera. The most likely score is 1-1. If Llerenense wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.5% of the 2,564 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Llerenense vs Castuera?
A very open match: only 89 Elo points separate Llerenense (1,809) and Castuera (1,720).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Llerenense vs Castuera
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Llerenense
Not enough data to predict the Llerenense lineup.
Castuera
4-3-3- ÁÁlex Cañero
- FFernando MartÃnez
- JJorge Gonzalez
- PPepe Gil
- AAbraham Bueno
- 18Loren Ruiz
- AAlejandro Chavero
- GGuille
- JJuanjo Neiva
- DDuvan Salgado
- 13Ángel Luengo Gutiérrez
Computed on October 17, 2026 at 05:10 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Llerenense have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Castuera have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Gévora(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | CD Zafra(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Jaraíz(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Villanovense(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Guadiana(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Atlético Pueblonuevo(home) | 5-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Plasencia(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Jerez(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Puebla Calzada(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Gévora(home) | 5-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Llerenense wins, 1 draw, 1 Castuera win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2025 | Castuera 3-1 Llerenense | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Llerenense 2-2 Castuera | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
Last archived meeting: Castuera vs Llerenense on Mar 21, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Llerenense score 1.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Castuera score 2.0 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Llerenense | 1.0 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Castuera | 2.0 | 1.4 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Llerenense sit 3rd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 (13 points from 5 matches) and Castuera sit 4th (12 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Llerenense | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Castuera | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 3 | 12 |
A question about Llerenense vs Castuera?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Llerenense vs Castuera?
- The Footlab AI model makes Llerenense the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Castuera.
- Where and when is Llerenense vs Castuera played?
- Llerenense vs Castuera is played on March 7, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Fernando Robina, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 14.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.5% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.