Cayón vs Guarnizo: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Group 3 - 19Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Fernando Astobiza, Sarón, Santa María de Cayón
The Footlab AI model makes Cayón the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Guarnizo. The most likely score is 1-1. If Cayón wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,384 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cayón vs Guarnizo?
A very open match: only 11 Elo points separate Cayón (1,792) and Guarnizo (1,782).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Cayón vs Guarnizo
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Cayón
Not enough data to predict the Cayón lineup.
Guarnizo
Not enough data to predict the Guarnizo lineup.
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 03:24 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cayón have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Guarnizo have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Torina(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Velarde(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Sámano(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Atlético Mineros(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Guarnizo(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Bezana(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Torina(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Velarde(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Sámano(away) | 1-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Cayón(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Cayón win, 3 draws, 2 Guarnizo wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Guarnizo 0-1 Cayón | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Guarnizo 1-0 Cayón | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Cayón 1-1 Guarnizo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Cayón 1-3 Guarnizo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Guarnizo 2-2 Cayón | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Aug 19, 2023 | Guarnizo 0-0 Cayón | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Cayón score 1.1 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Guarnizo score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cayón | 1.1 | 1.0 | 6 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Guarnizo | 1.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cayón sit 6th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 (11 points from 6 matches) and Guarnizo sit 11th (5 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Cayón | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 11 |
| 11 | Guarnizo | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 5 |
A question about Cayón vs Guarnizo?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cayón vs Guarnizo?
- The Footlab AI model makes Cayón the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Guarnizo.
- Where and when is Cayón vs Guarnizo played?
- Cayón vs Guarnizo is played on January 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Fernando Astobiza, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.