Match

CD Marathon vs Alianza: prediction and stats

CONCACAF Central American CupFinalKick-off on October 21, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Yankel Rosenthal, San Pedro Sula

CD MarathonAlianza

The Footlab AI model makes CD Marathon the favourite at 68%, against 20% for a draw and 12% for Alianza. The most likely score is 2-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,404 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win CD Marathon vs Alianza?

CD Marathon starts as the favourite with a 151-point Elo edge (1,790 vs 1,638).

68%20%12%
CD Marathon winDrawAlianza win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for CD Marathon vs Alianza

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

CD Marathon

4-3-3
  1. 11N. Messiniti
  2. 29C. Perez
  3. 77A. Elis
  1. 8T. Sorto
  2. 72Y. Moreno
  3. 9B. Farioli
  1. 22C. Argueta
  2. 4J. Rivera
  3. 2H. Figueroa
  4. 16S. Agurcia
  1. 1J. Rougier

Alianza

4-3-3
  1. 10L. Menjívar
  2. 9Gustavo Souza
  3. 10L. Menjivar
  1. 7M. Mier
  2. 6N. Orellana
  3. 8H. Osorio
  1. 19N. A. Rodriguez Arias
  2. 16H. Romero
  3. 23J. Monteagudo
  4. 3J. Sibrián
  1. 13M. González

Computed on October 15, 2026 at 05:48 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, CD Marathon have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Alianza have 4, 8 and 3.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

CD Marathon
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 11, 2026Lobos Upnfm(away)0-0Liga Nacional
Sep 21, 2026Juticalpa(away)2-3Liga Nacional
Sep 18, 2026LD Alajuelense(away)1-3CONCACAF Central American Cup
Sep 13, 2026CD Olimpia(home)1-0Liga Nacional
Sep 11, 2026LD Alajuelense(home)2-2CONCACAF Central American Cup
Alianza
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 11, 2026Inter(home)2-2Primera Division
Oct 9, 2026FAS(away)1-2Primera Division
Oct 4, 2026Firpo(home)2-2Primera Division
Oct 1, 2026Platense(home)2-1Primera Division
Sep 27, 2026Inca Aruba(home)1-1Primera Division

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 1 CD Marathon win, 0 draws, 1 Alianza win.

DateScoreCompetition
Aug 20, 2026CD Marathon 0-1 AlianzaCONCACAF Central American Cup
Aug 28, 2024CD Marathon 1-0 AlianzaCONCACAF Central American Cup

Last archived meeting: CD Marathon vs Alianza on Aug 20, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

CD Marathon score 1.5 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Alianza score 1.3 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
CD Marathon1.50.886/157/15
Alianza1.31.449/159/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

A question about CD Marathon vs Alianza?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for CD Marathon vs Alianza?
The Footlab AI model makes CD Marathon the favourite at 68%, against 20% for a draw and 12% for Alianza.
Where and when is CD Marathon vs Alianza played?
CD Marathon vs Alianza is played on October 21, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Yankel Rosenthal, in the CONCACAF Central American Cup.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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