CD Marathon vs Atlético Choloma: prediction and stats
Liga NacionalApertura - 14Kick-off on November 9, 2026 at 01:30 AM (UTC)Estadio Yankel Rosenthal, San Pedro Sula
The Footlab AI model makes CD Marathon the favourite at 73%, against 18% for a draw and 9% for Atlético Choloma. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,460 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 4, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win CD Marathon vs Atlético Choloma?
CD Marathon starts as the favourite with a 221-point Elo edge (1,761 vs 1,540).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for CD Marathon vs Atlético Choloma
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
CD Marathon
4-1-4-1- 11N. Messiniti
- 22C. Argueta
- 8T. Sorto
- 29C. Perez
- 9B. Farioli
- 10D. Ramírez
- 2H. Figueroa
- 4J. Rivera
- 16S. Agurcia
- 19J. Aguilera
- 1J. Rougier
Atlético Choloma
4-3-3- 19Olvin Zamora
- 13Á. Villatoro
- 2K. Álvarez
- 29E. Florez
- 10J. Canales
- 11Alvarado
- 23H. Castillo
- 18J. Quejada
- 21J. Capeluto
- 28J. Barrios
- 24J. Pineda
Computed on November 4, 2026 at 06:31 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, CD Marathon have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Atlético Choloma have 5, 1 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | CD Motagua(away) | 0-2 | Liga Nacional |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Alianza(away) | 0-0 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Atletico Independiente(away) | 2-2 | Liga Nacional |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Alianza(home) | 2-1 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Olancho(home) | 2-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | CD Olimpia(home) | 0-3 | Liga Nacional |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Génesis(home) | 3-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Juticalpa(away) | 2-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Oct 10, 2026 | CD Motagua(away) | 1-2 | Liga Nacional |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Estrella Roja(home) | 2-0 | Liga Nacional |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 CD Marathon wins, 2 draws, 1 Atlético Choloma win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Atlético Choloma 0-1 CD Marathon | Liga Nacional |
| May 1, 2026 | CD Marathon 0-1 Atlético Choloma | Liga Nacional |
| Mar 11, 2026 | Atlético Choloma 0-0 CD Marathon | Liga Nacional |
| Nov 27, 2025 | Atlético Choloma 0-4 CD Marathon | Liga Nacional |
| Sep 14, 2025 | CD Marathon 1-0 Atlético Choloma | Liga Nacional |
| Apr 20, 2013 | CD Marathon 1-1 Atlético Choloma | Liga Nacional |
Last archived meeting: Atlético Choloma vs CD Marathon on Aug 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
CD Marathon score 1.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Atlético Choloma score 1.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Marathon | 1.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Atlético Choloma | 1.0 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
CD Marathon sit 4th in Liga Nacional (22 points from 12 matches) and Atlético Choloma sit 8th (13 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | CD Marathon | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 11 | 22 |
| 8 | Atlético Choloma | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 13 |
A question about CD Marathon vs Atlético Choloma?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for CD Marathon vs Atlético Choloma?
- The Footlab AI model makes CD Marathon the favourite at 73%, against 18% for a draw and 9% for Atlético Choloma.
- Where and when is CD Marathon vs Atlético Choloma played?
- CD Marathon vs Atlético Choloma is played on November 9, 2026 at 01:30 AM (UTC) at Estadio Yankel Rosenthal, in the Liga Nacional.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.