Lobos Upnfm vs CD Motagua: prediction and stats
Liga NacionalApertura - 14Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 11:15 PM (UTC)Estadio Emilio Williams Agasse, Choluteca
The Footlab AI model makes CD Motagua the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Lobos Upnfm. The most likely score is 1-1. If CD Motagua wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,515 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 5, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lobos Upnfm vs CD Motagua?
CD Motagua starts as the favourite with a 202-point Elo edge (1,799 vs 1,597).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Lobos Upnfm vs CD Motagua
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Lobos Upnfm
4-3-3- 32M. Baquedano
- 16D. Carter
- 11S. Elvir
- 13M. Rodríguez
- 6J. Ponce
- 8J. Núñez
- 24O. Elvir
- 2D. Suazo
- 3G. Rodas
- 25M. Santos
- 12A. Güity
CD Motagua
4-3-3- 9J. Moya
- 21J. Bernardez
- 33E. Izaguirre
- 8D. Meléndez
- 23A. Reyes
- 27J. Macías
- 35C. Meléndez
- 34G. Sacaza
- 36V. Marinacci
- 17J. Portillo
- 22L. Ortiz
Computed on November 5, 2026 at 03:18 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lobos Upnfm have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; CD Motagua have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2026 | Olancho(away) | 0-0 | Liga Nacional |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Génesis(home) | 4-3 | Liga Nacional |
| Oct 25, 2026 | CD Olimpia(home) | 0-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Atletico Independiente(away) | 4-0 | Liga Nacional |
| Oct 11, 2026 | CD Marathon(home) | 0-0 | Liga Nacional |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | CD Marathon(home) | 2-0 | Liga Nacional |
| Oct 30, 2026 | LD Alajuelense(away) | 1-2 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Juticalpa(home) | 2-0 | Liga Nacional |
| Oct 23, 2026 | LD Alajuelense(home) | 0-0 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Platense FC(away) | 2-0 | Liga Nacional |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Lobos Upnfm wins, 2 draws, 2 CD Motagua wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | CD Motagua 4-1 Lobos Upnfm | Liga Nacional |
| May 1, 2026 | Lobos Upnfm 2-1 CD Motagua | Liga Nacional |
| Mar 11, 2026 | CD Motagua 2-0 Lobos Upnfm | Liga Nacional |
| Nov 28, 2025 | Lobos Upnfm 0-0 CD Motagua | Liga Nacional |
| Sep 14, 2025 | CD Motagua 3-3 Lobos Upnfm | Liga Nacional |
| Apr 8, 2025 | Lobos Upnfm 2-1 CD Motagua | Liga Nacional |
Last archived meeting: CD Motagua vs Lobos Upnfm on Aug 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lobos Upnfm score 1.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; CD Motagua score 1.5 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lobos Upnfm | 1.1 | 1.2 | 5 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| CD Motagua | 1.5 | 0.5 | 8 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lobos Upnfm sit 7th in Liga Nacional (16 points from 13 matches) and CD Motagua sit 3rd (25 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | CD Motagua | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 9 | 25 |
| 7 | Lobos Upnfm | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 16 | 16 |
A question about Lobos Upnfm vs CD Motagua?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lobos Upnfm vs CD Motagua?
- The Footlab AI model makes CD Motagua the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Lobos Upnfm.
- Where and when is Lobos Upnfm vs CD Motagua played?
- Lobos Upnfm vs CD Motagua is played on November 7, 2026 at 11:15 PM (UTC) at Estadio Emilio Williams Agasse, in the Liga Nacional.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.