CD Marathon vs Real Estelí: prediction and stats
CONCACAF Central American CupGroup StageKick-off on August 27, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC)Estadio Yankel Rosenthal, San Pedro Sula
The Footlab model makes CD Marathon the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Real Estelí. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win CD Marathon vs Real Estelí?
A very open match: only 16 Elo points separate CD Marathon (1,708) and Real Estelí (1,691).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, CD Marathon have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Real Estelí have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Real Espana(home) | 1-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Alianza(home) | 0-1 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Atlético Choloma(away) | 1-0 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Antigua GFC(away) | 3-0 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Platense FC(away) | 1-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Diriangén(home) | 0-2 | Primera Division |
| Aug 19, 2026 | CS Herediano(home) | 0-2 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Alianza(home) | 3-1 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Walter Ferretti(home) | 4-1 | Primera Division |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Antigua GFC(away) | 2-0 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 CD Marathon win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Real Estelí win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2021 | Real Estelí 2-0 CD Marathon | CONCACAF League |
| Sep 23, 2021 | CD Marathon 2-0 Real Estelí | CONCACAF League |
Last archived meeting: Real Estelí vs CD Marathon on Sep 30, 2021
How many goals should we expect?
CD Marathon score 0.8 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Real Estelí score 1.4 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Marathon | 0.8 | 0.7 | 7 | 5/15 | 2/15 |
| Real Estelí | 1.4 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for CD Marathon vs Real Estelí?
- The Footlab model makes CD Marathon the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Real Estelí.
- Where and when is CD Marathon vs Real Estelí played?
- CD Marathon vs Real Estelí is played on August 27, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC) at Estadio Yankel Rosenthal, in the CONCACAF Central American Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.