Génesis vs CD Marathon: prediction and stats
Liga NacionalApertura - 5Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Roberto Suazo Córdova, La Paz
The Footlab model makes CD Marathon the favourite at 42%, against 31% for a draw and 27% for Génesis. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Génesis vs CD Marathon?
CD Marathon starts as the favourite with a 139-point Elo edge (1,709 vs 1,570).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Génesis have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; CD Marathon have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Atletico Independiente(away) | 1-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Platense FC(home) | 3-0 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Real Espana(away) | 0-2 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Atlético Choloma(home) | 2-0 | Liga Nacional |
| May 19, 2026 | CD Motagua(away) | 1-2 | Liga Nacional |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Alianza(home) | 0-1 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Atlético Choloma(away) | 1-0 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Antigua GFC(away) | 3-0 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Platense FC(away) | 1-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Atletico Independiente(home) | 1-0 | Liga Nacional |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Génesis win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 CD Marathon win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Génesis 0-1 CD Marathon | Liga Nacional |
| Feb 27, 2026 | CD Marathon 1-2 Génesis | Liga Nacional |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Génesis 0-3 CD Marathon | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 9, 2025 | CD Marathon 1-0 Génesis | Liga Nacional |
| Apr 19, 2025 | CD Marathon 0-0 Génesis | Liga Nacional |
| Feb 18, 2025 | Génesis 1-1 CD Marathon | Liga Nacional |
Last archived meeting: Génesis vs CD Marathon on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Génesis score 1.3 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; CD Marathon score 0.8 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Génesis | 1.3 | 1.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| CD Marathon | 0.8 | 0.6 | 8 | 4/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Génesis sit 4th in Liga Nacional (7 points from 4 matches) and CD Marathon sit 5th (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Génesis | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 7 |
| 5 | CD Marathon | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Génesis vs CD Marathon?
- The Footlab model makes CD Marathon the favourite at 42%, against 31% for a draw and 27% for Génesis.
- Where and when is Génesis vs CD Marathon played?
- Génesis vs CD Marathon is played on August 29, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Roberto Suazo Córdova, in the Liga Nacional.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.