Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ vs FC Bacău II: prediction and stats
Liga III - Serie 1Group 1 - 16Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadionul Municipal Ceahlăul, Piatra Neamţ
The Footlab model makes Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ the favourite at 63%, against 21% for a draw and 17% for FC Bacău II. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ vs FC Bacău II?
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ starts as the favourite with a 155-point Elo edge (1,421 vs 1,267).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ have 0 wins, 2 draws and 13 defeats; FC Bacău II have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | Gheorgheni(away) | 0-5 | Cupa României |
| May 9, 2026 | Metalul Buzău(home) | 0-3 | Liga II |
| May 2, 2026 | ASA Targu Mures(away) | 0-4 | Liga II |
| Apr 25, 2026 | CS Dinamo București(home) | 0-2 | Liga II |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Muscelul Câmpulung Elite(away) | 3-3 | Liga II |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | USV Iaşi(away) | 1-2 | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| May 8, 2026 | CSM Adjud(home) | 1-2 | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| May 2, 2026 | Bucovina Rădăuţi(away) | 0-4 | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Gheorgheni(home) | 3-1 | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| Apr 17, 2026 | Odorheiu Secuiesc(away) | 2-4 | Liga III - Serie 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ score 0.6 and concede 2.9 goals per match over their last 15; FC Bacău II score 1.5 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ | 0.6 | 2.9 | 0 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
| FC Bacău II | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | FC Bacău II | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 17 | 18 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ vs FC Bacău II?
- The Footlab model makes Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ the favourite at 63%, against 21% for a draw and 17% for FC Bacău II.
- Where and when is Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ vs FC Bacău II played?
- Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ vs FC Bacău II is played on December 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadionul Municipal Ceahlăul, in the Liga III - Serie 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.