Čelik vs FK Sarajevo: prediction and stats
Premijer LigaRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Bilino Polje, Zenica
The Footlab model makes FK Sarajevo the favourite at 44%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Čelik. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Čelik vs FK Sarajevo?
FK Sarajevo starts as the favourite with a 226-point Elo edge (1,725 vs 1,499).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Čelik have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; FK Sarajevo have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Borac Banja Luka(away) | 0-2 | Premijer Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Siroki Brijeg(home) | 1-2 | Premijer Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Zrinjski(away) | 1-2 | Premijer Liga |
| Jun 6, 2026 | GOŠK Gabela(away) | 1-1 | 1st League - FBiH |
| May 31, 2026 | Igman Konjic(home) | 4-0 | 1st League - FBiH |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | BSK Banja Luka(home) | 1-0 | Premijer Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Radnik Bijeljina(home) | 0-0 | Premijer Liga |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Inter Turku(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Inter Turku(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| May 25, 2026 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo(home) | 1-0 | Premijer Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Čelik win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 FK Sarajevo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2026 | Čelik 0-1 FK Sarajevo | Cup |
| Oct 19, 2022 | Čelik 1-1 FK Sarajevo | Cup |
| Oct 18, 2019 | FK Sarajevo 2-0 Čelik | Premijer Liga |
| Jul 28, 2019 | Čelik 0-0 FK Sarajevo | Premijer Liga |
| May 3, 2019 | FK Sarajevo 5-0 Čelik | Premijer Liga |
| Dec 1, 2018 | FK Sarajevo 3-1 Čelik | Premijer Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Čelik score 2.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; FK Sarajevo score 1.5 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Čelik | 2.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| FK Sarajevo | 1.5 | 0.8 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Čelik sit 10th in Premijer Liga (0 points from 3 matches) and FK Sarajevo sit 4th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | FK Sarajevo | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Čelik | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Čelik vs FK Sarajevo?
- The Footlab model makes FK Sarajevo the favourite at 44%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Čelik.
- Where and when is Čelik vs FK Sarajevo played?
- Čelik vs FK Sarajevo is played on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Bilino Polje, in the Premijer Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.