Čelik vs FK Sarajevo: prediction and stats
Premijer LigaRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Stadion Bilino Polje, Zenica
The Footlab AI model makes FK Sarajevo the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Čelik. The most likely score is 1-1. If FK Sarajevo wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Čelik vs FK Sarajevo?
FK Sarajevo starts as the favourite with a 189-point Elo edge (1,736 vs 1,547).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Čelik vs FK Sarajevo
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Čelik
4-3-3- 99Anes Mašić
- 27N. Tomašević
- 11S. Faraj
- 14A. Hrvanović
- 8Andrés Mohedano
- 88F. Gogić
- 17A. Omic
- 24H. Šabanović
- 19N. Smajlovic
- 6Amer Masetic
- 1A. Å utkoviÄ
FK Sarajevo
4-1-4-1- 7I. Šarić
- 6J. Ivanisevic
- 20A. Elezi
- 77M. Kuprešak
- 35S. Ignatkov
- 9L. Mikić
- 30L. Dajčer
- 22A. Beganović
- 38Souleymane Meite
- 70S. Pidro
- 31I. Banić
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 01:43 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Čelik have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; FK Sarajevo have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo(away) | 1-1 | Premijer Liga |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Radnik Bijeljina(home) | 3-2 | Premijer Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | BSK Banja Luka(away) | 2-3 | Premijer Liga |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Sloga Doboj(away) | 0-0 | Premijer Liga |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Velež(home) | 3-0 | Premijer Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Sloga Doboj(home) | 2-0 | Premijer Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Velež(away) | 0-1 | Premijer Liga |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo(away) | 0-2 | Premijer Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Borac Banja Luka(home) | 1-0 | Premijer Liga |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Siroki Brijeg(away) | 2-1 | Premijer Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Čelik wins, 2 draws, 4 FK Sarajevo wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2026 | Čelik 0-1 FK Sarajevo | Cup |
| Oct 19, 2022 | Čelik 1-1 FK Sarajevo | Cup |
| Oct 18, 2019 | FK Sarajevo 2-0 Čelik | Premijer Liga |
| Jul 28, 2019 | Čelik 0-0 FK Sarajevo | Premijer Liga |
| May 3, 2019 | FK Sarajevo 5-0 Čelik | Premijer Liga |
| Dec 1, 2018 | FK Sarajevo 3-1 Čelik | Premijer Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Čelik score 2.1 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; FK Sarajevo score 1.2 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Čelik | 2.1 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| FK Sarajevo | 1.2 | 1.0 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Čelik sit 7th in Premijer Liga (8 points from 8 matches) and FK Sarajevo sit 3rd (13 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | FK Sarajevo | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 13 |
| 7 | Čelik | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 8 |
A question about Čelik vs FK Sarajevo?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Čelik vs FK Sarajevo?
- The Footlab AI model makes FK Sarajevo the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Čelik.
- Where and when is Čelik vs FK Sarajevo played?
- Čelik vs FK Sarajevo is played on October 11, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Stadion Bilino Polje, in the Premijer Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.