Velež vs Siroki Brijeg: prediction and stats
Premijer LigaRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Rođeni, Mostar
The Footlab model makes Velež the favourite at 53%, against 27% for a draw and 21% for Siroki Brijeg. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Velež vs Siroki Brijeg?
A very open match: only 73 Elo points separate Velež (1,645) and Siroki Brijeg (1,573).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Velež have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Siroki Brijeg have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sloga Doboj(home) | 2-0 | Premijer Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | BSK Banja Luka(away) | 0-2 | Premijer Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Borac Banja Luka(away) | 1-3 | Premijer Liga |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Dunajska Streda(home) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Dunajska Streda(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Radnik Bijeljina(home) | 2-1 | Premijer Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Čelik(away) | 2-1 | Premijer Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sloga Doboj(home) | 0-0 | Premijer Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tomislav(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 25, 2026 | Radnik Bijeljina(home) | 4-0 | Premijer Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Velež win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Siroki Brijeg win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2026 | Velež 3-0 Siroki Brijeg | Premijer Liga |
| Feb 15, 2026 | Siroki Brijeg 1-0 Velež | Premijer Liga |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Velež 2-1 Siroki Brijeg | Cup |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Velež 1-0 Siroki Brijeg | Premijer Liga |
| Aug 10, 2025 | Siroki Brijeg 1-3 Velež | Premijer Liga |
| Mar 28, 2025 | Siroki Brijeg 2-5 Velež | Premijer Liga |
Last archived meeting: Velež vs Siroki Brijeg on Apr 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Velež score 0.9 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Siroki Brijeg score 1.2 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Velež | 0.9 | 1.4 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Siroki Brijeg | 1.2 | 1.3 | 3 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Velež sit 7th in Premijer Liga (3 points from 3 matches) and Siroki Brijeg sit 2nd (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Siroki Brijeg | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Velež | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Velež vs Siroki Brijeg?
- The Footlab model makes Velež the favourite at 53%, against 27% for a draw and 21% for Siroki Brijeg.
- Where and when is Velež vs Siroki Brijeg played?
- Velež vs Siroki Brijeg is played on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Rođeni, in the Premijer Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.