Celje vs Mura: prediction and stats
1. SNLRegular Season - 19Kick-off on January 30, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Z'dežele, Celje
The Footlab model makes Celje the favourite at 71%, against 17% for a draw and 11% for Mura. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Celje vs Mura?
Celje is a heavy favourite: 1,948 Elo points against 1,628 — a 320-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Celje have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Mura have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Slovan Bratislava(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Nafta(away) | 3-1 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Ararat-Armenia(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Olimpija Ljubljana(home) | 1-0 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Ararat-Armenia(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Koper(home) | 0-1 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Brinje-Grosuplje(away) | 2-1 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Radomlje(home) | 1-3 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Nafta(away) | 2-5 | 1. SNL |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Olimpija Ljubljana(home) | 1-0 | 1. SNL |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Celje win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Mura win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 17, 2026 | Celje 2-2 Mura | 1. SNL |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Mura 0-2 Celje | 1. SNL |
| Feb 14, 2026 | Celje 5-1 Mura | 1. SNL |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Mura 2-1 Celje | 1. SNL |
| Aug 10, 2025 | Celje 3-0 Mura | 1. SNL |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Celje 2-1 Mura | 1. SNL |
How many goals should we expect?
Celje score 1.7 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Mura score 1.1 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celje | 1.7 | 1.2 | 4 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
| Mura | 1.1 | 1.9 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Celje sit 2nd in 1. SNL (1 points from 1 matches) and Mura sit 3rd (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Celje | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | Mura | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 4 | Celje | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 8 |
| 8 | Mura | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Celje vs Mura?
- The Footlab model makes Celje the favourite at 71%, against 17% for a draw and 11% for Mura.
- Where and when is Celje vs Mura played?
- Celje vs Mura is played on January 30, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Z'dežele, in the 1. SNL.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.