Aluminij vs Maribor: prediction and stats
1. SNLRegular Season - 19Kick-off on January 30, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Športni Park Aluminij, Kidričevo
The Footlab AI model makes Maribor the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Aluminij. The most likely score is 1-1. If Maribor wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aluminij vs Maribor?
Maribor starts as the favourite with a 159-point Elo edge (1,859 vs 1,699).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Aluminij vs Maribor
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Aluminij
4-3-3- 45B. Susso
- 44P. Petriško
- 11B. Osuji
- 14T. Jagić
- 13M. Vrbanec
- 7E. Taylor
- 32V. Težak
- 6D. Šimunić
- 4R. Schaubach
- 5M. Boben
- 31F. Raduha
Maribor
4-3-3- 70I. Tshipamba
- 17J. Mlakar
- 99B. Feta
- 7T. Cipot
- 5Ž. Jevšenak
- 8Claude Gonçalves
- 25M. Blažič
- 6B. M'bondo
- 21V. Koderman
- 23Ž. Karničnik
- 1A. Jug
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 08:32 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aluminij have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Maribor have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Celje(away) | 0-1 | 1. SNL |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Maribor(away) | 2-2 | 1. SNL |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Mura(away) | 6-1 | 1. SNL |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Bravo(home) | 0-0 | 1. SNL |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Celje(home) | 0-2 | 1. SNL |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Brinje-Grosuplje(away) | 2-1 | 1. SNL |
| Sep 28, 2026 | HNK Gorica(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Aluminij(home) | 2-2 | 1. SNL |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Radomlje(away) | 3-0 | 1. SNL |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Mura(home) | 1-1 | 1. SNL |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Aluminij win, 3 draws, 2 Maribor wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Maribor 2-2 Aluminij | 1. SNL |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Aluminij 0-0 Maribor | 1. SNL |
| May 23, 2026 | Maribor 3-0 Aluminij | 1. SNL |
| Mar 20, 2026 | Aluminij 1-1 Maribor | 1. SNL |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Maribor 2-3 Aluminij | 1. SNL |
| Sep 19, 2025 | Aluminij 2-3 Maribor | 1. SNL |
How many goals should we expect?
Aluminij score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Maribor score 1.8 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aluminij | 1.1 | 1.1 | 3 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Maribor | 1.8 | 0.9 | 5 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aluminij sit 7th in 1. SNL (13 points from 11 matches) and Maribor sit 1st (23 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maribor | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 21 | 9 | 23 |
| 7 | Aluminij | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 12 | 13 |
A question about Aluminij vs Maribor?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aluminij vs Maribor?
- The Footlab AI model makes Maribor the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Aluminij.
- Where and when is Aluminij vs Maribor played?
- Aluminij vs Maribor is played on January 30, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Športni Park Aluminij, in the 1. SNL.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.