Celtiga vs Celta de Vigo III: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 24Kick-off on February 28, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Salvador Otero, A Illa de Arousa
The Footlab model makes Celta de Vigo III the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Celtiga. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Celtiga vs Celta de Vigo III?
A very open match: only 97 Elo points separate Celtiga (1,700) and Celta de Vigo III (1,797).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Celtiga have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Celta de Vigo III have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Arosa(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 1, 2026 | Atlético Arteixo(home) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Noia(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Villalbés(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Barbadás(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Noia(away) | 5-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 3, 2026 | Villalbés(home) | 4-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Barbadás(away) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Alondras(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | CD Lugo B(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Celtiga win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Celta de Vigo III win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Celtiga 1-1 Celta de Vigo III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Celta de Vigo III 2-4 Celtiga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Celtiga vs Celta de Vigo III on Mar 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Celtiga score 1.2 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Celta de Vigo III score 2.2 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtiga | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Celta de Vigo III | 2.2 | 1.3 | 2 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Celtiga sit 13th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 (40 points from 34 matches) and Celta de Vigo III sit 7th (51 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Celta de Vigo III | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 57 | 42 | 51 |
| 13 | Celtiga | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 47 | 48 | 40 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Celtiga vs Celta de Vigo III?
- The Footlab model makes Celta de Vigo III the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Celtiga.
- Where and when is Celtiga vs Celta de Vigo III played?
- Celtiga vs Celta de Vigo III is played on February 28, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Salvador Otero, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.