CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 13Kick-off on October 22, 2026 at 03:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Hidalgo, Pachuca de Soto
The Footlab model makes Cruz Azul the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for CF Pachuca. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul?
Cruz Azul starts as the favourite with a 102-point Elo edge (2,040 vs 1,938).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, CF Pachuca have 6 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats; Cruz Azul have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Atletico San Luis(away) | 1-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Puebla(home) | 2-3 | Liga MX |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Charlotte(away) | 1-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Columbus Crew(away) | 1-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | FC Cincinnati(away) | 1-3 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Atlas(home) | 0-2 | Liga MX |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Club Tijuana(away) | 1-2 | Liga MX |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Chicago Fire(home) | 1-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | New York City FC(home) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Philadelphia Union(home) | 1-0 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 CF Pachuca win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Cruz Azul win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2026 | Cruz Azul 1-2 CF Pachuca | Liga MX |
| Sep 13, 2025 | CF Pachuca 0-1 Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
| Feb 9, 2025 | Cruz Azul 2-1 CF Pachuca | Liga MX |
| Sep 29, 2024 | CF Pachuca 2-4 Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
| Jan 14, 2024 | Cruz Azul 0-1 CF Pachuca | Liga MX |
| Aug 24, 2023 | CF Pachuca 1-0 Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
Last archived meeting: Cruz Azul vs CF Pachuca on Apr 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
CF Pachuca score 1.2 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Cruz Azul score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF Pachuca | 1.2 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Cruz Azul | 1.7 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
CF Pachuca sit 13th in Liga MX (3 points from 3 matches) and Cruz Azul sit 6th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Cruz Azul | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| 12 | Cruz Azul | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 6 |
| 13 | CF Pachuca | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 14 | CF Pachuca | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul?
- The Footlab model makes Cruz Azul the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for CF Pachuca.
- Where and when is CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul played?
- CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul is played on October 22, 2026 at 03:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Hidalgo, in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.