Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 13Kick-off on October 21, 2026 at 03:00 AM (UTC)Estadio AKRON, Zapopan
The Footlab model makes Guadalajara Chivas the favourite at 66%, against 20% for a draw and 14% for Necaxa. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa?
Guadalajara Chivas starts as the favourite with a 146-point Elo edge (1,994 vs 1,848).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Guadalajara Chivas have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Necaxa have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Club Tijuana(home) | 5-2 | Liga MX |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Santos Laguna(away) | 1-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Seattle Sounders(away) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Dallas(home) | 0-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Los Angeles FC(away) | 1-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas(away) | 1-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Leon(home) | 1-2 | Liga MX |
| Aug 13, 2026 | New York City FC(away) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Philadelphia Union(away) | 1-3 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Chicago Fire(away) | 0-2 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Guadalajara Chivas win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Necaxa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 23, 2026 | Necaxa 0-0 Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| Sep 24, 2025 | Guadalajara Chivas 3-1 Necaxa | Liga MX |
| Jan 18, 2025 | Necaxa 3-2 Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| Oct 23, 2024 | Guadalajara Chivas 3-2 Necaxa | Liga MX |
| Feb 21, 2024 | Necaxa 1-0 Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| Jul 14, 2023 | Guadalajara Chivas 2-0 Necaxa | Liga MX |
Last archived meeting: Necaxa vs Guadalajara Chivas on Apr 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Guadalajara Chivas score 1.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Necaxa score 1.3 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guadalajara Chivas | 1.5 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Necaxa | 1.3 | 1.7 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Guadalajara Chivas sit 12th in Liga MX (4 points from 3 matches) and Necaxa sit 8th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 10 |
| 8 | Necaxa | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 11 | Necaxa | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
| 12 | Guadalajara Chivas | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa?
- The Footlab model makes Guadalajara Chivas the favourite at 66%, against 20% for a draw and 14% for Necaxa.
- Where and when is Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa played?
- Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa is played on October 21, 2026 at 03:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio AKRON, in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.