Tigres UANL vs Leon: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 13Kick-off on October 21, 2026 at 03:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Universitario de Nuevo León, San Nicolás de los Garza
The Footlab AI model makes Tigres UANL the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Leon. The most likely score is 1-1. If Tigres UANL wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tigres UANL vs Leon?
On Elo ratings, Tigres UANL has 1,971 points and Leon 1,923.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Tigres UANL vs Leon
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Tigres UANL
4-2-3-1- 22G. Martínez
- 11J. Brunetta
- 8F. Gorriarán
- 16D. Lainez
- 5C. Araújo
- 9E. Gómez
- 15A. Franco
- 28Joaquim
- 19M. Laínez
- 33R. Guerrero
- 1N. Guzmán
Leon
4-1-4-1- 27D. Cambindo
- 29J. Rodríguez
- 203J. Lara
- 11I. Díaz
- 16J. Cortizo
- 18E. Guerra
- 7I. Moreno
- 14J. Romaña
- 3Juan José Guevara Possu
- 26S. Reyes
- 23Ó. García
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 09:38 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tigres UANL have 3 wins, 8 draws and 4 defeats; Leon have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Toluca(home) | 3-2 | Liga MX |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Puebla(home) | 1-0 | Liga MX |
| Sep 19, 2026 | FC Juarez(away) | 0-2 | Liga MX |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Monterrey(away) | 0-0 | Liga MX |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Necaxa(home) | 1-1 | Liga MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Puebla(away) | 1-1 | Liga MX |
| Sep 28, 2026 | FC Juarez(home) | 2-1 | Liga MX |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Club Queretaro(away) | 1-1 | Liga MX |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Atletico San Luis(home) | 2-0 | Liga MX |
| Sep 11, 2026 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas(away) | 1-3 | Liga MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Tigres UANL wins, 2 draws, 1 Leon win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | Leon 1-2 Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Tigres UANL 0-0 Leon | Liga MX |
| Feb 23, 2025 | Leon 1-0 Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Tigres UANL 2-2 Leon | Liga MX |
| Jan 18, 2024 | Leon 1-2 Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
| Jul 16, 2023 | Tigres UANL 1-0 Leon | Liga MX |
How many goals should we expect?
Tigres UANL score 1.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Leon score 1.5 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tigres UANL | 1.1 | 1.2 | 5 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
| Leon | 1.5 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tigres UANL sit 13th in Liga MX (13 points from 11 matches) and Leon sit 5th (18 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Leon | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 18 |
| 13 | Tigres UANL | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 15 | 13 |
A question about Tigres UANL vs Leon?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tigres UANL vs Leon?
- The Footlab AI model makes Tigres UANL the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Leon.
- Where and when is Tigres UANL vs Leon played?
- Tigres UANL vs Leon is played on October 21, 2026 at 03:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Universitario de Nuevo León, in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.