Tigres UANL vs Leon: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 13Kick-off on October 21, 2026 at 03:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Universitario de Nuevo León, San Nicolás de los Garza
The Footlab model makes Tigres UANL the favourite at 61%, against 23% for a draw and 17% for Leon. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tigres UANL vs Leon?
A very open match: only 81 Elo points separate Tigres UANL (1,976) and Leon (1,895).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tigres UANL have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Leon have 11, 0 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Atlante FC(home) | 2-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Atlas(away) | 1-2 | Liga MX |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Vancouver Whitecaps(home) | 1-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Minnesota United FC(home) | 0-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Real Salt Lake(home) | 1-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Monterrey(home) | 2-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Necaxa(away) | 2-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Inter Miami(away) | 3-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Orlando City SC(away) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Nashville SC(away) | 1-0 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Tigres UANL win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Leon win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | Leon 1-2 Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Tigres UANL 0-0 Leon | Liga MX |
| Feb 23, 2025 | Leon 1-0 Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Tigres UANL 2-2 Leon | Liga MX |
| Jan 18, 2024 | Leon 1-2 Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
| Jul 16, 2023 | Tigres UANL 1-0 Leon | Liga MX |
How many goals should we expect?
Tigres UANL score 1.4 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Leon score 2.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tigres UANL | 1.4 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| Leon | 2.2 | 1.5 | 5 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tigres UANL sit 16th in Liga MX (1 points from 3 matches) and Leon sit 14th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Leon | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 9 |
| 14 | Leon | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 4 |
| 16 | Tigres UANL | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tigres UANL vs Leon?
- The Footlab model makes Tigres UANL the favourite at 61%, against 23% for a draw and 17% for Leon.
- Where and when is Tigres UANL vs Leon played?
- Tigres UANL vs Leon is played on October 21, 2026 at 03:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Universitario de Nuevo León, in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.