Chaves II vs Maria da Fonte: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group AGroup A - 10Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Campo de Treinos do Municipal de Chaves, Chaves
The Footlab model makes Chaves II the favourite at 54%, against 27% for a draw and 19% for Maria da Fonte. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chaves II vs Maria da Fonte?
Chaves II starts as the favourite with a 100-point Elo edge (1,817 vs 1,717).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chaves II have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Maria da Fonte have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Rebordosa(home) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Os Limianos(away) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Tirsense(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Bragança(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Os Limianos(home) | 3-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Celoricense(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Vinhais(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Fafe(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Brito(home) | 1-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Arouca(home) | 0-5 | Taça de Portugal |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Chaves II win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Maria da Fonte win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2020 | Maria da Fonte 1-2 Chaves II | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Aug 25, 2019 | Chaves II 2-4 Maria da Fonte | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
Last archived meeting: Maria da Fonte vs Chaves II on Jan 26, 2020
How many goals should we expect?
Chaves II score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Maria da Fonte score 0.9 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves II | 1.2 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| Maria da Fonte | 0.9 | 1.7 | 3 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chaves II sit 10th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A (3 points from 2 matches) and Maria da Fonte sit 9th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Maria da Fonte | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Chaves II | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chaves II vs Maria da Fonte?
- The Footlab model makes Chaves II the favourite at 54%, against 27% for a draw and 19% for Maria da Fonte.
- Where and when is Chaves II vs Maria da Fonte played?
- Chaves II vs Maria da Fonte is played on December 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Campo de Treinos do Municipal de Chaves, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.