Maria da Fonte vs Vila Meã: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group AGroup A - 11Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Moinhos Novos, Póvoa de Lanhoso
The Footlab AI model makes Maria da Fonte the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Vila Meã. The most likely score is 1-1. If Maria da Fonte wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.8% of the 5,250 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 10, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Maria da Fonte vs Vila Meã?
A very open match: only 83 Elo points separate Maria da Fonte (1,747) and Vila Meã (1,831).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Maria da Fonte vs Vila Meã
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Maria da Fonte
4-3-3- 27João Antunes
- 10Henrique Vieira
- 70João Araújo
- 6Davide Caseiro
- AAndré Faria
- 8Dino Fernandes
- 21Cabreira
- 24Leandro Albano
- 83Wilson Oliveira
- 5Rafael Pereira
- 1Paulo Jorge
Vila Meã
Not enough data to predict the Vila Meã lineup.
Computed on November 10, 2026 at 01:07 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Maria da Fonte have 5 wins, 1 draw and 9 defeats; Vila Meã have 3, 7 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Ponte da Barca(home) | 3-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Montalegre(away) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Bragança(home) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Maia Lidador(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Paredes(away) | 1-5 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Maia Lidador(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Nov 1, 2026 | SC Braga B(away) | 2-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Brito(home) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Celoricense(away) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Vinhais(home) | 4-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Maria da Fonte wins, 1 draw, 1 Vila Meã win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2023 | Maria da Fonte 2-2 Vila Meã | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Nov 27, 2022 | Vila Meã 4-0 Maria da Fonte | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
Last archived meeting: Maria da Fonte vs Vila Meã on Mar 12, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Maria da Fonte score 0.9 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Vila Meã score 1.0 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maria da Fonte | 0.9 | 1.9 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Vila Meã | 1.0 | 1.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Maria da Fonte sit 13th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A (4 points from 7 matches) and Vila Meã sit 10th (9 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Vila Meã | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 9 |
| 13 | Maria da Fonte | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 4 |
A question about Maria da Fonte vs Vila Meã?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Maria da Fonte vs Vila Meã?
- The Footlab AI model makes Maria da Fonte the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Vila Meã.
- Where and when is Maria da Fonte vs Vila Meã played?
- Maria da Fonte vs Vila Meã is played on December 13, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Moinhos Novos, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.