Chaves vs Amarante: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaRegular Season - 32Kick-off on May 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Chaves
The Footlab model makes Amarante the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Chaves. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chaves vs Amarante?
Amarante starts as the favourite with a 106-point Elo edge (1,992 vs 1,886).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chaves have 5 wins, 1 draws and 9 defeats; Amarante have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | AVS(home) | 2-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sporting CP B(away) | 0-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Academica(home) | 1-4 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Guimaraes B(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Vizela(away) | 0-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lusitânia Lourosa(home) | 0-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tondela(away) | 1-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Moreirense(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Chaves(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Chaves win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Amarante win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 22, 2026 | Chaves 2-1 Amarante | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Chaves score 1.6 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Amarante score 1.3 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Amarante | 1.3 | 1.0 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chaves sit 17th in Segunda Liga (1 points from 3 matches) and Amarante sit 16th (1 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Amarante | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 17 | Chaves | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chaves vs Amarante?
- The Footlab model makes Amarante the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Chaves.
- Where and when is Chaves vs Amarante played?
- Chaves vs Amarante is played on May 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.