Chaves vs Penafiel: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaRegular Season - 10Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Chaves
The Footlab AI model makes Chaves the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Penafiel. The most likely score is 1-1. If Chaves wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chaves vs Penafiel?
A very open match: only 53 Elo points separate Chaves (1,974) and Penafiel (2,027).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Chaves vs Penafiel
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Chaves
4-3-3- 10André Rodrigues
- 30Costinha
- 17Roberto
- 16D. Yearwood
- 19Gilberto García
- 42Aílson Tavares
- 23Léo Alabá
- 29M. Tounkara
- 34Ricardo Alves
- 33Tiago Simões
- 1João Valido
Penafiel
3-4-3- 10Davo
- 17João Pinto
- 9Max Svensson
- 21Pedro Sá
- 50Francisco Varela
- 8Àlex Carbonell
- 85Carlinhos Augusto
- 5Jaime Sánchez
- 27Gonçalo Negrão
- 75T. Alloh
- 1Miguel Oliveira
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 01:16 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chaves have 5 wins, 1 draw and 9 defeats; Penafiel have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Farense(away) | 0-4 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Guarda(away) | 3-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Feirense(home) | 1-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(away) | 1-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 23, 2026 | AVS(home) | 2-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Oliveirense(away) | 2-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(away) | 2-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Academica(home) | 4-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | FC Porto B(away) | 3-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sporting CP B(home) | 2-0 | Segunda Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Chaves wins, 1 draw, 3 Penafiel wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2026 | Chaves 0-1 Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Penafiel 0-2 Chaves | Segunda Liga |
| May 15, 2025 | Penafiel 0-0 Chaves | Segunda Liga |
| Jan 4, 2025 | Chaves 0-1 Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
| Jul 18, 2023 | Penafiel 1-2 Chaves | Friendlies Clubs |
| Mar 6, 2022 | Penafiel 2-1 Chaves | Segunda Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Chaves score 1.5 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Penafiel score 1.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Penafiel | 1.9 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chaves sit 16th in Segunda Liga (4 points from 6 matches) and Penafiel sit 2nd (13 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Penafiel | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 13 |
| 16 | Chaves | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 4 |
A question about Chaves vs Penafiel?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chaves vs Penafiel?
- The Footlab AI model makes Chaves the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Penafiel.
- Where and when is Chaves vs Penafiel played?
- Chaves vs Penafiel is played on November 8, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.