Chaves vs União de Leiria: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaMatchday 30Kick-off on April 18, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Chaves
The Footlab AI model makes União de Leiria the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Chaves. The most likely score is 1-1. If União de Leiria wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 6,428 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chaves vs União de Leiria?
União de Leiria starts as the favourite with a 106-point Elo edge (2,033 vs 1,927).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Chaves vs União de Leiria
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Chaves
4-3-3- 10André Rodrigues
- 30Costinha
- 17Roberto
- 19Gilberto García
- 42Aílson Tavares
- 16D. Yearwood
- 23Léo Alabá
- 34Ricardo Alves
- 7R. Esajas
- 14N. Araújo
- 1João Valido
União de Leiria
4-4-2- 21Jaime
- 9Juan Muñoz
- 98Ibrahima
- 17Pablo Fernández
- 6E. Kouassi
- 88Diogo Martins
- 68Maga
- 44Marcelo
- 16Zé Pedro
- 3Marc Baró
- 99J. Odehnal
Computed on November 15, 2026 at 07:02 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chaves have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; União de Leiria have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Penafiel(home) | 2-3 | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Benfica B(away) | 1-3 | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Vizela(home) | 2-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Os Marialvas(home) | 2-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Lusitânia Lourosa(away) | 1-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2026 | Torreense(away) | 3-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 31, 2026 | AVS(home) | 2-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 25, 2026 | FC Porto B(away) | 1-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Bragança(home) | 2-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Academica(home) | 0-2 | Segunda Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Chaves wins, 1 draw, 3 União de Leiria wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | Chaves 0-2 União de Leiria | Segunda Liga |
| Nov 3, 2025 | União de Leiria 2-1 Chaves | Segunda Liga |
| May 10, 2025 | Chaves 0-2 União de Leiria | Segunda Liga |
| Jan 12, 2025 | União de Leiria 1-1 Chaves | Segunda Liga |
Last archived meeting: Chaves vs União de Leiria on Mar 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Chaves score 1.3 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; União de Leiria score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| União de Leiria | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chaves sit 16th in Segunda Liga (8 points from 10 matches) and União de Leiria sit 6th (17 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | União de Leiria | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 13 | 17 |
| 16 | Chaves | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 8 |
A question about Chaves vs União de Leiria?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chaves vs União de Leiria?
- The Footlab AI model makes União de Leiria the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Chaves.
- Where and when is Chaves vs União de Leiria played?
- Chaves vs União de Leiria is played on April 18, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.