Penafiel vs Tondela: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaRegular Season - 30Kick-off on April 18, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril, Penafiel
The Footlab model makes Tondela the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Penafiel. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Penafiel vs Tondela?
A very open match: only 62 Elo points separate Penafiel (1,873) and Tondela (1,935).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Penafiel have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Tondela have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sporting CP B(home) | 2-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Torreense(away) | 2-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Portimonense(home) | 0-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Leganes(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Famalicao(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Academica(home) | 0-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Leixoes(away) | 0-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Amarante(home) | 2-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Rio Ave(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | São João Ver(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Penafiel win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Tondela win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2025 | Tondela 2-0 Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Penafiel 2-2 Tondela | Segunda Liga |
| Apr 13, 2024 | Tondela 0-1 Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
| Dec 3, 2023 | Penafiel 0-2 Tondela | Segunda Liga |
| May 14, 2023 | Penafiel 1-0 Tondela | Segunda Liga |
| Jan 9, 2023 | Tondela 0-1 Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Penafiel score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Tondela score 1.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penafiel | 1.3 | 1.4 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Tondela | 1.0 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Penafiel sit 7th in Segunda Liga (4 points from 3 matches) and Tondela sit 11th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Penafiel | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 11 | Tondela | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Penafiel vs Tondela?
- The Footlab model makes Tondela the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Penafiel.
- Where and when is Penafiel vs Tondela played?
- Penafiel vs Tondela is played on April 18, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.