Penafiel vs Tondela: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaRegular Season - 30Kick-off on April 18, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril, Penafiel
The Footlab AI model makes Tondela the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Penafiel. The most likely score is 1-1. If Tondela wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,732 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Penafiel vs Tondela?
A very open match: only 53 Elo points separate Penafiel (1,949) and Tondela (2,002).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Penafiel vs Tondela
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Penafiel
3-4-3- 10Davo
- 17João Pinto
- 9Max Svensson
- 21Pedro Sá
- 8Àlex Carbonell
- 50Francisco Varela
- 85Carlinhos Augusto
- 5Jaime Sánchez
- 27Gonçalo Negrão
- 6Adrián Pica
- 1Miguel Oliveira
Tondela
4-2-3-1- 19Tómané
- 20Hugo Félix
- 7Cascavel
- 97Cícero
- 37Sarará
- 8Hélder Tavares
- 15Carraça
- 12Zé Ricardo
- 4Christian Marques
- 6Farru
- 28Araujo Carlos
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 09:08 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Penafiel have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Tondela have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Leça(home) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 9, 2026 | AVS(home) | 1-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Oliveirense(away) | 2-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(away) | 2-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Academica(home) | 4-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Torreense(home) | 1-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Imortal Albufeira(away) | 5-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Portimonense(away) | 2-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | FC Porto B(home) | 3-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 28, 2026 | União de Leiria(away) | 0-2 | Segunda Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Penafiel wins, 1 draw, 2 Tondela wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2025 | Tondela 2-0 Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Penafiel 2-2 Tondela | Segunda Liga |
| Apr 13, 2024 | Tondela 0-1 Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
| Dec 3, 2023 | Penafiel 0-2 Tondela | Segunda Liga |
| May 14, 2023 | Penafiel 1-0 Tondela | Segunda Liga |
| Jan 9, 2023 | Tondela 0-1 Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Penafiel score 1.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Tondela score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penafiel | 1.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Tondela | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Penafiel sit 4th in Segunda Liga (13 points from 7 matches) and Tondela sit 7th (12 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Penafiel | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 13 |
| 7 | Tondela | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 12 |
A question about Penafiel vs Tondela?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Penafiel vs Tondela?
- The Footlab AI model makes Tondela the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Penafiel.
- Where and when is Penafiel vs Tondela played?
- Penafiel vs Tondela is played on April 18, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.