Where and when is Chełmianka Chełm vs Czarni Połaniec played?

Chełmianka Chełm vs Czarni Połaniec is played on May 8, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski, in the III Liga - Group 4.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Chełmianka Chełm vs Czarni Połaniec: prediction and stats

III Liga - Group 4Group IV - 30Kick-off on May 8, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Miejski, Chełm

Chełmianka Chełm

Czarni Połaniec

The Footlab model makes Chełmianka Chełm the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 19% for Czarni Połaniec. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Chełmianka Chełm vs Czarni Połaniec?

Chełmianka Chełm starts as the favourite with a 155-point Elo edge (1,929 vs 1,774).

Chełmianka Chełm win58 %

Draw23 %

Czarni Połaniec win19 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chełmianka Chełm have 12 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats; Czarni Połaniec have 6, 2 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Chełmianka Chełm
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Naprzód(away)	2-0	III Liga - Group 4
Aug 19, 2026	Wisłoka Dębica(home)	2-1	III Liga - Group 4
Aug 15, 2026	Moravia Morawica(away)	3-0	III Liga - Group 4
Aug 8, 2026	Sokół Kolb.(home)	2-0	III Liga - Group 4
Aug 1, 2026	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów(away)	1-0	III Liga - Group 4

Czarni Połaniec
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Korona Kielce II(away)	4-3	III Liga - Group 4
Aug 19, 2026	Star Starachowice(away)	0-2	III Liga - Group 4
Aug 15, 2026	Podlasie Biała Podlaska(home)	0-2	III Liga - Group 4
Aug 8, 2026	Siarka Tarnobrzeg(away)	1-0	III Liga - Group 4
Aug 2, 2026	KS Wieczysta Krakow II(home)	3-1	III Liga - Group 4

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Chełmianka Chełm win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Czarni Połaniec win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 7, 2026	Czarni Połaniec 1-1 Chełmianka Chełm	III Liga - Group 4
Aug 23, 2025	Chełmianka Chełm 1-0 Czarni Połaniec	III Liga - Group 4
Mar 29, 2025	Czarni Połaniec 2-3 Chełmianka Chełm	III Liga - Group 4
Aug 31, 2024	Chełmianka Chełm 3-1 Czarni Połaniec	III Liga - Group 4
Apr 13, 2024	Chełmianka Chełm 1-1 Czarni Połaniec	III Liga - Group 4
Sep 16, 2023	Czarni Połaniec 3-3 Chełmianka Chełm	III Liga - Group 4

Last archived meeting: Czarni Połaniec vs Chełmianka Chełm on Mar 7, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Chełmianka Chełm score 2.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Czarni Połaniec score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Chełmianka Chełm	2.1	0.9	8	7/15	8/15
Czarni Połaniec	1.5	1.7	2	11/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Chełmianka Chełm sit 1st in III Liga - Group 4 (15 points from 5 matches) and Czarni Połaniec sit 5th (9 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chełmianka Chełm	5	5	0	0	10	1	15
5	Czarni Połaniec	5	3	0	2	8	8	9

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Chełmianka Chełm vs Czarni Połaniec?: The Footlab model makes Chełmianka Chełm the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 19% for Czarni Połaniec.
Where and when is Chełmianka Chełm vs Czarni Połaniec played?: Chełmianka Chełm vs Czarni Połaniec is played on May 8, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski, in the III Liga - Group 4.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.