Czarni Połaniec vs Chełmianka Chełm: prediction and stats
III Liga - Group 4Group IV - 13Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion MKS Czarni Połaniec, Połaniec
The Footlab model makes Chełmianka Chełm the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Czarni Połaniec. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Czarni Połaniec vs Chełmianka Chełm?
Chełmianka Chełm starts as the favourite with a 155-point Elo edge (1,926 vs 1,771).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Czarni Połaniec have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Chełmianka Chełm have 12, 2 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Korona Kielce II(away) | 4-3 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Star Starachowice(away) | 0-2 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska(home) | 0-2 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg(away) | 1-0 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | KS Wieczysta Krakow II(home) | 3-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Naprzód(away) | 2-0 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Wisłoka Dębica(home) | 2-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Moravia Morawica(away) | 3-0 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sokół Kolb.(home) | 2-0 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów(away) | 1-0 | III Liga - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Czarni Połaniec win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Chełmianka Chełm win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | Czarni Połaniec 1-1 Chełmianka Chełm | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Chełmianka Chełm 1-0 Czarni Połaniec | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Czarni Połaniec 2-3 Chełmianka Chełm | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Chełmianka Chełm 3-1 Czarni Połaniec | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Apr 13, 2024 | Chełmianka Chełm 1-1 Czarni Połaniec | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Sep 16, 2023 | Czarni Połaniec 3-3 Chełmianka Chełm | III Liga - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Czarni Połaniec vs Chełmianka Chełm on Mar 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Czarni Połaniec score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Chełmianka Chełm score 2.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Czarni Połaniec | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Chełmianka Chełm | 2.1 | 0.9 | 8 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Czarni Połaniec sit 5th in III Liga - Group 4 (9 points from 5 matches) and Chełmianka Chełm sit 1st (15 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chełmianka Chełm | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Czarni Połaniec | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Czarni Połaniec vs Chełmianka Chełm?
- The Footlab model makes Chełmianka Chełm the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Czarni Połaniec.
- Where and when is Czarni Połaniec vs Chełmianka Chełm played?
- Czarni Połaniec vs Chełmianka Chełm is played on October 17, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion MKS Czarni Połaniec, in the III Liga - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 17, 2026Siarka TarnobrzegvsPogoń-Sokół Lubaczów
- Oct 17, 2026Podlasie Biała PodlaskavsWiślanie Jaśkowice
- Oct 17, 2026Wisłoka DębicavsNaprzód
- Oct 17, 2026JarosławvsKSZO 1929
- Oct 17, 2026Star StarachowicevsKorona Kielce II
- Oct 17, 2026Sokół Kolb.vsWisła Kraków II
- Oct 17, 2026KS Wieczysta Krakow IIvsMoravia Morawica
- Oct 17, 2026Busko-ZdrojvsHetman Zamosc