Chełmianka Chełm vs Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów: prediction and stats
III Liga - Group 4Group IV - 18Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Miejski, Chełm
The Footlab model makes Chełmianka Chełm the favourite at 66%, against 21% for a draw and 13% for Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chełmianka Chełm vs Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów?
Chełmianka Chełm starts as the favourite with a 295-point Elo edge (1,929 vs 1,634).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chełmianka Chełm have 12 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats; Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Naprzód(away) | 2-0 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Wisłoka Dębica(home) | 2-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Moravia Morawica(away) | 3-0 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sokół Kolb.(home) | 2-0 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów(away) | 1-0 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | KSZO 1929(away) | 0-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Wisła Kraków II(home) | 1-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Naprzód(away) | 1-2 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Moravia Morawica(home) | 0-2 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Chełmianka Chełm(home) | 0-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Chełmianka Chełm win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 0-1 Chełmianka Chełm | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Chełmianka Chełm 1-1 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 0-0 Chełmianka Chełm | III Liga - Group 4 |
| May 30, 2025 | Chełmianka Chełm 3-4 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 1-6 Chełmianka Chełm | III Liga - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów vs Chełmianka Chełm on Aug 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Chełmianka Chełm score 2.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chełmianka Chełm | 2.1 | 0.9 | 8 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chełmianka Chełm sit 1st in III Liga - Group 4 (15 points from 5 matches) and Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów sit 18th (1 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chełmianka Chełm | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 15 |
| 18 | Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chełmianka Chełm vs Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów?
- The Footlab model makes Chełmianka Chełm the favourite at 66%, against 21% for a draw and 13% for Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów.
- Where and when is Chełmianka Chełm vs Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów played?
- Chełmianka Chełm vs Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów is played on November 21, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski, in the III Liga - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Nov 21, 2026Siarka TarnobrzegvsHetman Zamosc
- Nov 21, 2026Korona Kielce IIvsNaprzód
- Nov 21, 2026Podlasie Biała PodlaskavsKSZO 1929
- Nov 21, 2026Wisłoka DębicavsBusko-Zdroj
- Nov 21, 2026Wiślanie JaśkowicevsMoravia Morawica
- Nov 21, 2026Star StarachowicevsWisła Kraków II
- Nov 21, 2026Sokół Kolb.vsJarosław
- Nov 21, 2026KS Wieczysta Krakow IIvsCzarni Połaniec