Cheltenham vs Grimsby: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 5Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Completely-Suzuki Stadium, Cheltenham, Gloucestershire
The Footlab model makes Grimsby the favourite at 56%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Cheltenham. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cheltenham vs Grimsby?
Grimsby starts as the favourite with a 163-point Elo edge (1,834 vs 1,670).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cheltenham have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Grimsby have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Swindon Town(away) | 1-2 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rotherham(home) | 2-1 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Charlton(home) | 1-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Milton Keynes Dons(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Evesham United(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Walsall(away) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Exeter City(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Blackpool(home) | 1-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Grimsby Borough(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Wigan(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Cheltenham win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Grimsby win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | Cheltenham 0-2 Grimsby | League Two |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Grimsby 7-1 Cheltenham | League Two |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Cheltenham 1-1 Grimsby | League Two |
| Aug 17, 2024 | Grimsby 3-2 Cheltenham | League Two |
| Apr 5, 2021 | Grimsby 1-1 Cheltenham | League Two |
| Oct 13, 2020 | Cheltenham 1-3 Grimsby | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Cheltenham vs Grimsby on Jan 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Cheltenham score 1.3 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Grimsby score 1.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham | 1.3 | 1.9 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Grimsby | 1.7 | 0.9 | 7 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cheltenham sit 14th in League Two (3 points from 2 matches) and Grimsby sit 8th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Grimsby | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 14 | Cheltenham | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cheltenham vs Grimsby?
- The Footlab model makes Grimsby the favourite at 56%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Cheltenham.
- Where and when is Cheltenham vs Grimsby played?
- Cheltenham vs Grimsby is played on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Completely-Suzuki Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.